May 21, 2009

NDP Leadership

Every NDP leader would like to follow in the steps of Manitoba Premier Gary Doer First elected MLA in 1986, Doer became leader of the Manitoba NDP in 1988. He led his party to three defeats before becoming Premier in 1999, and continues as Premier after two subsequent elections.

Like Doer, NDP Leader Carole James led her party from the brink of extinction back to full status as the Official Opposition. After the 2005 BC election the NDP celebrated more than the Liberals, even though the seat count was 33 NDP to 46 Liberals. Despite coming within a few thousand votes of winning in 2005, the NDP subsequently trailed the Liberals by double digits in the public opinion polls. During the recent election campaign, the Mustel Group put the NDP 17 points behind the Liberals in mid-April, dropping to a 9 point gap a week before the vote. Similarly, Ipsos Reid put the NDP 8 points behind the weekend before the vote.

Perhaps the NDP was once again on the brink of extinction but its campaign managed to maintain the status quo. Preliminary results for May 12th had the NDP at 36 seats and the Liberals at 49; the popular vote was 42.0% NDP, 46.1% Liberal. An alternative view, argued by some NDP activists, is that the NDP could have won had it not run a confused campaign. Some argue the party could have done better with different campaign strategists and tacticians, e.g. running one clear message with different advertising. Supporters of that view want an internal house cleaning; others would go farther, noting the buck stops with the leader, who should have taken charge and spoken out on the economy. The challenge is to begin the 2013 campaign immediately, as the Liberals did in 1996 when they refused to give the newly elected NDP a traditional electoral honeymoon.

For all its history, the NDP has chosen leaders through the traditional process of a leadership convention. The party's constitution was amended after James was elected leader so the next leader must be elected by a popular vote of the members. How that will work is up to the Party's Provincial Council, consisting of one representative from each of the 85 constituencies plus the 35 member party executive, four youth delegates and the past president. There is no procedure in the NDP constitution for "un-electing" a Leader. Unless the Leader resigns, all the party can do to encourage a change is to set the rules for an election, a procedure that requires a majority vote of the 125 member provincial council.

The Leader of the Official Opposition is paid the same as a cabinet minister (formally a Member of the Executive Council with portfolio), 50% more than the six figure MLA base salary. By not resigning after the May 12th election, Carole James will receive over $200,000 in additional pay if she remains as leader until the May 14, 2013 election. Her pension will be increased accordingly (3.5% per year of service times highest 3 year average). Many would argue that it is fair that the Leader of the Opposition be highly compensated.

Apart from the financial incentives to remain in office, there are political advantages in delaying a leadership contest. It is arguable that, given fixed election dates, it is to the NDP's advantage, if it were going to change leaders, to wait until 2012. That would give the party momentum from a leadership race going into the 2013 vote. With that perspective, the answer James gave with respect to staying on must be seen as keeping all options open. The party's constitution requires a convention in 2009 and 2011.

A lot will happen both in terms of internal party politics and provincial politics before options start to close in 2012. In the meantime, James and her colleagues are on probation, as much or more than Premier Campbell and his new cabinet. Both parties need to focus on how to engage the half of BC voters who did not vote. A few small changes there could make a big change in 2013.