June 9 , 2009

B.C. New Democrats Look East

New Democrats from coast to coast are celebrating Nova Scotia electing its first ever NDP government. N.S. NDP leader Darrell Dexter comfortably won on his third try. That may be of some comfort to B.C. New Democrats who can look to Nova Scotia an example where NDP formed a government on their third trip to the polls, and Manitoba where victory was achieved under Doer after three unsuccessful tries. Unfortunately, there are differences. In Manitoba and Nova Scotia the party made steady progress as it climbed towards victory. In B.C. the NDP seemed to stall in 2009, losing two incumbents and failing to break through in any of the ridings touted as swing seats.

One big difference between the NDP win in Nova Scotia and the loss in B.C. is leadership. Dexter was seen as a Premier in waiting. In B.C. seven weeks before the vote, pollster Angus Reid found that Gordon Campbell enjoyed an 11-point lead over James on leadership and a 24-point lead on managing the economy. If the NDP is going to breakthrough in B.C. in 2013, its leader must be seen as a Premier in waiting. James has only a short time to close the leadership gap before her caucus signals that it is time for a change.

It would be wise for those charged with doing the post mortem on the NDP's 2009 election campaign, to compare the party's performance in B.C. and N.S., including looking at pre-election polling, platforms and advertising campaigns.

Some NDP strategists will no doubt rush to point out that the popular vote in N.S. split 45.3% NDP, 27.2% Liberal and 24.5% PC. On May 12th the vote in B.C. split 46.1% Liberal, 42.0% NDP, with the next closest party being the Greens at 8.1%. In other words, the B.C. NDP came within 4-points of the B.C. Liberals, and only 3.3-points short of the N.S. NDP. Those who argue that the NDP doesn't have to change its leader or strategy may believe that the party came so close, both to the Liberals and relative to the N.S. New Democrats, that the leader should be given another chance. Time will tell whether that view predominates; the August 25th sitting of the legislature also means that members of each caucus regularly meet, compare notes and plot.