December 5, 2008

Harper's Win, Canada's Loss

It is hard to say what made Stephen Harper the happiest: 1) getting Parliament prorogued, or 2) seeing Stéphane Dion's out of focus, poorly produced, late delivered free-primetime reply to his national appeal. Locking Members of Parliament out so he doesn't have to face a non-confidence vote was a necessary step for Harper's survival; having Dion remain as Liberal Leader, and Leader of the Coalition, until May 2nd is an insurance policy for his continued survival. The poor hapless Dion had a second chance and he blew it.

On January 26 Canadians will be treated to the second Throne Speech since the October 14th election, just six days after President-elect Obama is sworn into office. Prime Minister Harper promised that his budget will be delivered on January 27th. No one should think that is when the Coalition will finally get its chance for a non-confidence vote. The postponement of opposition days and the time set aside for debate on the Throne and Budget speeches will carry Parliament into the second week of February before a confidence vote can be held. That's the same time Premier Campbell will be presenting British Columbians with his pre-election Throne Speech and Budget. Concurrent high drama in Ottawa and the Legislative launch of the May election in BC is bound to cause confusion and distraction. The extent that the two events interact may be evidenced on December 8th when Quebec votes in its provincial election.

Fighting within the Liberal caucus over leadership combined with a fresh start for Harper are likely to make it more difficult for the combined opposition to succeed with a non-confidence vote. Harper won't go as far as the Liberal-NDP coalition would have done with a package of stimuli, but he is likely to lift enough of their ideas so as to appear to have gotten the message. As calendar moves on, it will become increasing difficult for the Governor General to recognize the Coalition as a government in waiting without an election. If the Coalition is going to stand a chance of becoming government and replacing Harper in February, they are going to have to replace Dion as interim leader and campaign as if they are the government in waiting, making announcements much like President-elect Obama has done. Neither are likely to occur, so although only 37.5% of voters supported the Harper Conservatives, Canadians had better get used to putting up with his government until a credible opposition can fight another election and defeat him. It might take a minimum of a year and a half for the Liberals to deal with their financial problems and prepare for another election.

Some hotline callers and reporters are asking whether partners in the Coalition would campaign as a Coalition in the next election. Elsewhere in the world, where coalitions are common, political parties usually campaign in their own names and only later form coalitions using whatever building blocks they are given by the electorate. The mistake the Liberals and NDP made in the last campaign was denying that they would consider working together as a coalition. It will be far more difficult to deny that possibility next time, which might affect strategic voting in an all out effort to stop Harper, who has lost all pretence of governing moderately if he is given a majority. In the past the NDP has been the biggest loser in electoral squeezes like that. Keeping the option of a coalition open for the next three or four months while differentiating themselves from the Liberals so as to survive in an election will not be easy for Jack Layton.

Conservatives should take no joy in Mr. Harper's short term victory. He encouraged a national unity debate in order to save his political skin. His attacks on the Block were quickly morphed into attacks on Quebec by some of his supporters. Western alienation was flamed. Instead of acting like a statesman, Harper behaved like a tyrant. Lasting damage may have been done to Canada's fabric. It will take more than a fuzzy blue sweater and a professionally produced TV commercial to restore civility to Canadian politics.