In response to Premier Campbell's announcement of a $14 billion transit plan, many bus-riders are saying: "I'll believe it when I see it." $10 for a round trip between Surrey and Vancouver is already a deterrent to the use of transit; who knows how much the fare will be after TransLink has to pony-up its share for Campbell's plan. Nevertheless, it is refreshing to hear the Campbell government pay lip-service to the importance of public transit. Like the target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, it indicates that the government recognizes the need for change. What is really changing?

The announcement included the Canada Line, which is near completion; it also included 1,500 new buses. TransLink already has plans to add 254 new buses in 2008 plus more in future years. That's a net addition of only 94 vehicles in 2008 since 160 of the new buses will replace older models. We don't know what portion of Campbell's 1,500 new buses is for the region served by TransLink. We don't know whether the 1,500 includes new buses previously announced, and we don't know how many of the 1,500 new buses are to replace old buses. We also don't know the timetable for ordering and getting delivery on the new buses. This sounds a lot like the shell game the Campbell government pulled with its broken promise of 5,000 new long term care beds.

The Evergreen Line and UBC Line have been discussed for years. Does Campbell's announcement put completion of those lines any closer to reality? Until significant funds are spent on engineering studies and a timetable is established for inviting bids on construction, no one should place any more faith in Campbell's announcement than was placed in previous promises.

The commitment to upgrade the Expo Line is new, and, until you look closely, it appears to have a timetable that can be measured relative to the next election. The devil is in the details. The pamphlet that masquerades as a plan states that $3.1 billion will be required to double capacity on the Expo Line and that includes major improvement to stations "starting in 2009". In other words, by the May 12, 2009 election you probably won't see major construction at a SkyTrain station near you.

It appears that work will be well underway on twinning the Port Mann bridge long before construction of the newly announced expansion of transit begins. What does that mean for the growing number of private vehicles on the roads, and what does it mean for greenhouse gas reduction? Campbell's transit plan claims it "will reduce provincial transportation greenhouse gas emissions by 4.7 million tonnes cumulatively by 2020". The words "cumulatively by 2020" are very tricky. Does that mean that under a certain set of assumptions if you add what greenhouse gases would have been emitted to the estimate of what ultimately are emitted, and sum those figures from 2008 through 2020, you get a total of 4.7 million tonnes? If that's the case, and you believe that's a big deal, then I have a bridge to sell you. The Campbell government should lay its cards on the table and make the assumptions and calculation of the 4.7 million tonnes available on its website. I've submitted a freedom of information request for any documents that reveal the assumptions and calculations.

ICBC is probably the best source of information on the number of vehicles in BC. It files detailed reports with BCUC for its rate hearings. These reports don't include estimates of the number of vehicles driven in BC with Alberta (or other non-BC) plates, but they provide a good basis for estimating the growth in the number of vehicles on our roads. In 2002, ICBC licensed 2.18 million private passenger automobiles for third party liability; in 2006, it licensed 2.39 million. The average annual growth rate in the number of private passenger automobiles between 2002 and 2006 was 2.3%. If growth continues at that rate, BC will have 3.27 million private passenger automobiles by 2020, an increase of more than 30% from what we have in 2008. There will probably be some technological improvements in emissions over the next 12 years as older cars are replaced by new ones.

According to the 1990-2004 National Inventory Report on Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada, emissions from road transportation rose 36% between 1990 and 2004, primarily due to people driving farther. Light trucks (SUVs) were responsible for the increase while cars showed a decrease. Approximately 40% of BC's 2004 generation of 66.8 megatonnes of greenhouse gases came from transportation. Do the math! The Campbell government claims that its transit plan will result in a cumulative reduction of 4.7 million megatonnes by 2020, but the base for transportation is 26.7 megatonnes with a growth rate of more than 2% per year. If the growth is held to only 20% between now and 2020, that's an increase of 5.3 megatonnes. Even if claims for his transit plan are true, BC has a very long way to go to meet Campbell's promised 33% reduction below the 2007 level by 2020 in the amount of greenhouse gas emissions. The transit plan doesn't take care of the projected growth in transportation sector greenhouse gases, let alone contribute to the 33% reduction. It is unlikely that the target can be met without doing something about those gas guzzling SUVs.