December 3, 2008

Will Harper Respect the Law?

In the October 14th election, the Conservatives won 64.6% of the vote in Alberta and 53.7% in Saskatchewan. Stephen Harper seems to think his national vote was a majority, rather than the 37.6% he actually received across Canada. The majority of Canadians, 62.4% did not vote for the Conservatives. In B.C. 55.6% of voters did not vote for Harper's Conservatives.

With his 37.6% vote, Mr. Harper is carrying on about having a mandate from the voters and how the proposed Liberal-NDP coalition must, in his opinion, go to the voters before forming a government. The combined popular nationwide vote for the Liberals and the NDP was 44.4%. Add the popular vote for the Block and the Greens (who support the coalition), and the four parties represent 61.2% of the nation's vote. Harper understands the traditions of the Westminster model of parliamentary democracy, so he must know that he is misleading some Canadians when he claims that the coalition doesn't have the right to form a government without another election.

Suppose for a moment that the Governor General does not recognize the coalition and that Canadians have another election. Why would anyone expect the outcome to be different? As long as the Block wins 50 seats in Quebec, something Harper's attack on them makes more likely, no party is likely to win the 155 seats it takes to form a parliamentary majority. We could spend another $300 million on a second election within three or four months with nothing to show for it other than the loss of precious time that is needed to deal with the economy. Mr. Harper wasted his opportunity to win a majority by playing coy about the economy and mocking culture, not wise in Quebec. Remember his advice that it was a good time to invest? Those who did will have lost even more.

Canadians get it that Harper doesn't respect Canada's other political parties, but 62.4% of Canadian votes opted for one of those parties. Is Harper saying that he doesn't respect two-thirds of Canadians? Why would the people who voted against him in October change their mind based on what he's done in the past six weeks?

Harper might find it even more difficult to win a majority after he showed his hand with his fiscal update. In 2006 there was an effort to frighten voters away from the Conservatives based on the possible implementation of a socially conservative agenda. Harper showed some tendencies in that direction during his first term, e.g. by refusing to support Insite. Within weeks of receiving his enlarged minority, Harper revealed why he scares many Canadians: undermining pay equity, the right to strike and the financial viability of his opponents while failing to deliver an economic recovery package. If he leads the Conservative Party into another election, the other parties will have good reason to argue that he cannot be trusted with a majority.

Harper is clinging to power at all costs. He is going to put the Governor General in the unprecedented position of making a historical decision that will be criticized no matter what she does. It is essential that all political parties respect whatever decision she makes. Constitutional scholars may argue over the merits of different options for the Governor General; however, they all agree that her decision is final, notwithstanding conflicting advice she may receive.

Supporters of the Harper government are planning to demonstrate outside the official residence of the Governor General, the Queen's Representative and head of state. Harper should advise them that it is not appropriate to hold rallies on the grounds of Rideau Hall; he should show that he respects the Office and position of the Governor General.