The day after the federal by-elections, Ipsos-Reid released its first quarter poll on provincial voting intentions. It is hard to find anything in the numbers that would give the NDP anything to feel good about.

The Ipsos-Reid poll was conducted between March 5 and March 10, 2008. According to Ipsos-Reid: "The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 800 adult British Columbians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of BC been polled." The results showed that 83% of voters were decided, and amongst the decided voters, if a provincial election were held, 46% would vote Liberal and 34% NDP. The 12 point gap is 2 points greater than the last three Ipsos-Reid quarterly polls, but 5 points less than the big gap that appeared in April 2007. The popular vote in the May 2005 election was 46% Liberal and 42% NDP. The Green vote was 9% in May 2005; the Greens polled 16% support in March 2008.

The table below shows the results from the by-elections for the NDP and Greens compared to the results for the 2004 and 2006 general elections. The NDP vote remained roughly consistent in the three elections in Vancouver Quadra and Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, but the Green vote increased, particularly in Vancouver Quadra. There was a sharp drop in the NDP vote in both Ontario by-elections and an increase in the Green vote, particularly in Toronto Centre. It is important to keep in mind that voter behaviour is different in by-elections, and the ridings are not on the NDP's most-likely-to-win list. Both Ontario ridings had former Liberal leadership candidates running with the expectation that they would win easily. Nevertheless, it would be mistake to ignore the strength of the Green vote. It would also be a mistake to consider it as much more than a protest, or none-of-the-above, vote.

	Vancouver Quadra		Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River		Willowdale		Toronto Centre
	NDP	Green	NDP	Green	NDP	Green	NDP	Green
2008	14.4%	13.5%	17.6%	3.2%	4.8%	5.8%	13.8%	13.6%
2006	16.1%	5.1%	15.4%	2.2%	11.4%	4.1%	23.7%	5.2%
2004	15.0%	5.6%	20.1%	2.8%	9.6%	3.7%	23.8%	3.9%

Even if the Green vote collapses, it will not all go to the NDP; some voters will go to other parties, and some will just stay home. The NDP will have to do more to be competitive. If that doesn't happen before the May 2009 provincial election, over half of the current NDP caucus members will lose their seats. The 151 vote Liberal win in the Vancouver Quadra by-election, and the loss for Dion's hand-picked candidate in Saskatchewan, means we may have the May 12, 2009 election in BC before the federal election which, in the absence of a lost confidence vote, is scheduled for October 19, 2009.