October 19, 2008

October 29th By-Elections

Against the advice of the Chief Electoral Officer, Premier Campbell chose to call by-elections for Vancouver-Burrard and Vancouver-Fairview so as to squeeze them between the October 14th federal election and the November 15th municipal elections. It will be interesting to see what the voter turnout will be. Let's hope it is higher than the 61% turnout for BC in the federal election; that is unlikely in view of the turnout in the 2005 provincial election.

The next general provincial election is scheduled for May 12, 2009. Due to redistribution, the legislature will then be increased from 79 MLAs to 85 MLAs and the ridings of Vancouver-Burrard and Vancouver-Fairview will be reorganized as three new ridings: Vancouver-West End, Vancouver-False Creek and a new Vancouver-Fairview that is missing the part of the riding that now is bounded by 12th Avenue on the south and False Creek on the North. Based on voting patterns by polling districts in recent elections, it is a reasonable guess that the new riding of Vancouver-West End will be won by the NDP while the other two ridings are much more likely to be won by the Liberals.

Anything can happen in by-elections when nothing is really at stake other than the prestige and bragging rights of the parties. In the 2005 provincial election the Liberals won Vancouver-Burrard by only 11 votes out of 28,679 votes that were cast (a 51.95% turnout). In Vancouver-Fairview, the NDP won by 895 votes out of 28,126 votes (60.64% turnout). Since 2005 a lot of new condos were constructed on the north side of False Creek, many selling for $1,000/sq ft, not exactly the kind of housing where a lot of New Democrats are normally found. That area is currently in Vancouver-Burrard, but not in the new riding of Vancouver-West End.

Claims that both by-elections are the NDP's to lose are propaganda aimed at raising the stakes prior to the May 2009 election. Based on demographic shifts, it looks like the Liberals should have the advantage in both old ridings. If the NDP wins either, it will be an important victory for both the local candidate and for Carole James. The odds are against them, and a victory would have to be interpreted as a rejection of Gordon Campbell's policies.