October 30, 2008

Meaning of the By-Elections

NDP Leader Carole James, Spencer Hebert, Jenn McGinn and thousands of New Democrats across the province are celebrating the October 29th by-election wins. Premier Gordon Campbell may try to rain on the parade by saying that no government has won a by-election in the past 27 years, but imagine how he would be crowing if the Liberals had won even one of the contests.

Demographic shifts in both constituencies since the 2005 election favoured the Liberals, but it appears many voters stayed home. In 2005, there were 28,483 people who cast ballots in Vancouver-Burrard; in the by-election only 13,003 voted. In 2005, there were 28,126 people who cast ballots in Vancouver-Fairview; in the by-election only 11,760 voted.

Three new constituencies will be forged out of the two old ridings when people next go to the polls for the May 12, 2009 provincial election. Hebert and McGinn can take nothing for granted with twice as many people likely to vote, but they will have momentum for re-election. NDP candidates in the rest of the province shouldn't become over confident because of the by-election wins, but the victories will boost morale and make it easier to recruit the volunteers that are essential for winning campaigns.

With the close of the polls on October 29th, the clock starts ticking on reporting requirements under the Election Act. Within 90 days of the close of the polls, parties and candidates must file election financing reports with Elections BC. By the first week in February, a few days before the last Throne Speech of this legislature, the financing reports will be available on the Elections BC website. In Vancouver-Burrard the spending limit was $91,875 for political parties, plus another $83,625 for candidates. In Vancouver-Fairview the spending limit was $70,342 for political parties, plus another $75,011 for candidates. Did the BC Liberal party and its candidates spend anywhere close to $320,000 on the two campaigns without winning a seat? Of course that doesn't count the cost of the government advertising that continued to run through the campaign, or the impact (or lack thereof) of Campbell's unusual 6:15 PM "news conference" on his ten steps. The $1 million Elections BC spent to run the election is in addition to the money spent by the political parties and candidates. If the costs for the Liberals are close to the maximums, Campbell's excuse that they were only by-elections will be put in a much different light.

People may want a break from election campaigns, but for all practical purposes the May 12, 2009 campaign is underway. The BC Liberal party website already has a page titled: "Countdown to 2009 Election Begins Today" asking for donations and volunteers. For the next six and a half months everything the Campbell government does has to be seen through that election filter. That is why the government's financial statements and budget numbers have to be received with a good deal of cynicism and tested for credibility against independent sources. Of course, that is always true, but it is all the more so when the stakes are raised with a pending election.