The Campbell government continues to suffer from the excesses of its first term. Time will tell whether the bungled sale of BC Rail, details of which are unfolding in the courts, will inflict damage before the May 2009 election. It still has not escaped the consequences of cutting the Ministry of Children and Family Development as if it were any other government department, and this week it is being reminded of its 2001 decision to cut the Mental Health Advocate. For a surprise on the list of memories, who would have thought that under the hard-hearted Campbell government the welfare caseload would increase?

In 2003 the Campbell government launched a $3 million program to "re-assess" 19,000 people with disabilities. At the end of the review, only 400 cases were found that may have had their benefits adjusted. The average annual disability caseload in 2003 was 59,641; in December 2007 the disability caseload was 65,302, an increase of 9.5%. The disability caseload has been increasing every month.

The caseload of single (expected to work) men has also been increasing for almost two years, on a seasonally adjusted basis. Some might argue that the welfare rate adjustment might have contributed to the increase, but the rate increase for single men didn't take effect until April 1, 2007, although it was "foreshadowed" in Campbell's October 2006 speech to the UBCM and announced in the February 2007 budget. It is hard to believe that Campbell's 7 month foreshadowing of a rate adjustment contributed to the increase in caseloads. In October 2006 there were 6,722 single men who were expected to work receiving income assistance; in December 2007 there were 9,721, an increase of 44.6%. If seasonal effects are removed, the increase is still almost 30%. When a trend line is fitted to the last three years of data, it looks like the upturn started as early as February 2006.

The February 19, 2008 budget may indicate whether the Campbell government forecasts further increases in the caseload. Let's hope that it doesn't revert to the bad old days of its first term, with harsh measures to punish those seeking help. At a time of increasing economic uncertainty, the government should be looking at ways to help more than 15,000 homeless rather than looking at punitive welfare measures that might increase that number. We can all hope that the significant increase in single (expected to work) men receiving income assistance isn't an early sign of a softening economy, but even if it is, it is a sign that those who have been left behind during BC's boom need help more than ever.