Based on Ipsos-Reid's December poll, one might think that 2007 was a stand still year in BC politics. The telephone poll of 800 randomly selected adult British Columbians was conducted between December 5 and December 11, 2007, with results that are considered accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The standings of the Liberals, New Democrats and Greens haven't changed much since December 2006. Campbell's Liberals enjoy a 10 point lead over the NDP, 45% to 35%. The Mustel Group's polls also show a substantial difference between the parties, 14 points in their November 2007 poll. If that gap doesn't close, half or more of the NDP caucus could lose their seats in the May 2009 election, resulting in a weaker Official Opposition and a worse government.

Of course there will be changes between now and May 2009. The wheels might be coming off Campbell's cart. The biggest political news on the provincial front in 2007 was arguably the announcement by Finance Minister Carole Taylor that she will not stand for re-election at the provincial level, but that she is full of energy for her next career. Taylor's bombshell was followed by Labour Minister Olga Ilich also announcing that she won't stand for re-election. Neither woman needs the $137,000 annual salary earned as an MLA and cabinet minister. They have shown Gordon Campbell that they don't need to play second fiddle in his one-man band. It is quite likely that Taylor and Ilich will be followed by others who declare that this is their last term as an MLA. The government will spin the announcements as personal, or as normal attrition, or as part of renewal; in some cases the spin will be true, but Campbell's failure to persuade prominent first term members to run again could be a sign of internal problems and discontent. Pay and perks are not adequate compensation for many members who become disillusioned after coming to grips with the unfortunate fact that many staff in the Premier's Office have far more power than cabinet ministers.

The year got off to a bad start when the Premier appointed a supposedly independent three-person commission to make recommendations on MLA pay and pensions. Their report mocked public input by commissioning a BC Stats survey that tested public knowledge on various issues and then using the results to devalue public opinion. Nevertheless, after the commission recommended a 29% increase in base pay, plus a gold plated pension and even bigger increases for the Premier and his cabinet, an Ipsos Reid poll, conducted on behalf of Global TV, found that 67% of those sampled opposed the recommendations of the Report of the Independent Commission to Review MLA Compensation, and 68% would be much less likely to vote for any politician who supported a 29% pay increase. The opposition took the pension and said they would donate the pay increase to charity. Their handling of the issue was a lesson in how to blow a political opportunity. It will be interesting to see if the issue is resurrected at election time.

The government's theme for the year is usually set out in February's Throne Speech followed by the budget. This year the Throne Speech announced that the government would develop a climate change action plan with the goal of reducing greenhouse gases by 33 per cent below current levels by 2020; interim targets are to be set for 2012 and 2016. Other than changing the decorative light bulbs on the exterior of the legislature, it is hard to find any concrete actions that flowed from February's promise. The deadlines for even the interim targets (which won't be announced until the middle of 2008) are set beyond the likely retirement dates for Campbell and most of his cabinet. Achieving the ambitious goal will probably have an enormous impact on how British Columbians live, but a realistic description of the changes that are required may not be seen for years.

In 2006 the Throne Speech announced the government's "Conversation on Health". Campbell demonstrated his flavour of the month approach to politics by being out of the country when the report on the conversation was released on November 30th. According to Vancouver Sun columnist Vaughn Palmer, Health Minister George Abbott stood up to Campbell in a government caucus meeting. If that is true, it is unfortunate for British Columbia that Taylor and Ilich are leaving rather than following Abbott's example.

The 2007-2008 budget was styled as the "housing budget", but its biggest component was a 10% cut in income tax for income under $100,000; in other words, those with incomes over $100,000 still get the cut but only on their first $100,000 in income. It's possible that the six figure set will rush out and spend more on housing, but they may be just as likely to join the Premier in a jaunt to Hawaii this Christmas. The budget also announced that the four month old program rental assistance program would be expanded by raising the income threshold to $28,000. The Minister of Finance claimed that the expanded program would benefit over 20,000 lower income working families, but as of November fewer than 4,000 families were enrolled in the program. It is difficult to understand how the Campbell government failed to help the 20,000 families it targeted for assistance. Perhaps those most in need don't have the literacy skills necessary to apply for the rental assistance program. A caring government would account for the difference between the program's promise and what it achieved.

At the end of May the Ombudsman proved the worth of her office by issuing a report on lottery prizes that put the lie to government claims that: "it can't happen here". If it weren't for the Ombudsman, Solicitor General John Les would probably still be saying that BC retailers win more because they play more. That was one of several unfortunate embarrassments for Les which in November resulted in an entire question period being devoted to asking whether the Premier had confidence in his Minister. Campbell was silent throughout what must have been the equivalent of water torture for his Minister. His failure to defend Les might also be contributing to problems within the Liberal caucus.

In June the Supreme Court of Canada overturned sections of Bill 29 (2002), the legislation that tore-up collective agreements for HEU and other health unions. The Court acknowledged that it was correcting what it considered an error made in previous rulings, not errors made by lower courts, but errors in the reasoning of the Supreme Court of Canada. The Campbell government has until June 2008 to correct its legislation. It is currently negotiating with the unions, but as the court pointed out, negotiations need to be in good faith but they don't need to be successful. Shortly after the spring session of the Legislature convenes in February, we should see what the government thinks is an appropriate fix to its labour legislation. Differences of opinion on that matter might also have contributed to Ilich's decision not to run again.

In July Chief Kim Baird and Premier Gordon Campbell announced that a treaty had been negotiated with the Tsawwassen First Nation, the first modern treaty to be concluded under the process established by Premier Mike Harcourt. That guaranteed a fall sitting of the Legislature to ratify the treaty; it also posed a challenge for the NDP because it removed land from the agricultural land reserve. The second treaty to be ratified by the Legislature in November was with the five Maa-nulth First Nations on Vancouver Island. Two treaties in one session after years of frustration would not have been thought possible when Campbell first became Premier. His 180 degree change with respect to aboriginal issues may irritate some who supported him in 1991, but it has effectively made aboriginal issues nonpartisan.

On September 13, a month before the fall sitting of the Legislature, Campbell released a letter to the Speaker in which he outlined his plans to re-write the terms of reference for the Electoral Boundaries Commission. That prompted the Commission to suspend its public hearings, but the subsequent legislation, Bill 39, was allowed to die on the Order Paper as a result of criticism from the NDP (and perhaps the government's own legal opinions). The government used closure to force its changes to TransLink through the Legislature, but it wasn't willing to add Bill 39 to the closure list. The chaos Campbell has created may result in boundaries being used for the May 2009 election that would not withstand a court challenge. He has threatened not to implement the Commission's recommendations if they fail to reflect his bungled attempt to change the Commission's mandate.

The Legislature sat from October 15th (Legislative Calendar called for it to sit starting Oct. 1st) through November 29th. The NDP caucus website includes an amusing list of quotes from the session. Those who follow the Legislature closely know the intricacies of funding for the Representative for Children and Youth, Mary Ellen Turpel Lafond, details of booster seats, the size of the overrun on the convention centre expansion and that details of the KPMG investigation are still secret, but ask a few folks on the street about those issues and look at the blank faces. While the NDP is considered by most pundits to have "won" the Legislative session, one might ask if it matters if it has little or no influence on voting intentions. It does matter because good government requires good opposition, and pressure from the NDP helped to correct some bad decisions. However, the great Legislative performance had absolutely no impact on voter intentions because no issue emerged that was top of mind for many or most voters. The Legislative session was great for insiders and irrelevant for the general public, just the way government wants it.

One wild card is the raid on the Legislature which sparked the yet-to-be-held Basi-Virk trial. Bill Tieleman has covered the preliminary hearings leading up to the trial extensively. There is a remote possibility that details emerging from the trial and its preliminary hearings could affect the Campbell government. It is also possible that pigs could grow wings and fly unless they turned out like penguins. Anything is possible.

Some believe that Campbell could even survive a scandal since the NDP has only formed government when the "right" has been divided. That wasn't true when Clark won in 1996 and the Reform Party took only 9.3% of the popular vote (compared to the 24% Social Credit, 33% Liberal split in 1991). Credit also needs to be given to Carole James' near upset in 2005, when the popular vote was 45.8% Liberal and 41.5% NDP. The New Democrats haven't come so close to the Liberals in any poll since that election. If fewer than 3,000 votes in 7 key ridings had been cast the other way, the NDP would be the government today. Perhaps that near death experience is why Campbell has done a 180 on so many issues. If so, let it be a lesson on the importance of having a competitive political climate.

It's customary to make some predictions for the New Year. If 2008 is anything like 2004, we can expect the Campbell government to overrun its advertising budget starting in November 2008 with what will look to many like an election campaign. If the promise to halt government advertising before the election is honoured, watch for Liberal Party ads to use the graphics and themes from the government ads so as to maximize the use of tax dollars for their partisan benefit. If 2009 is anything like 2005, those millions will have little benefit and we could see a close race. While the polls show a 10 point or greater gap between the Liberals and the NDP, they also show that enough votes are parked with the Greens to make the difference. Past elections show that those votes don't stay with the Greens on voting day (they took 9.2% in 2005). In 2008 the NDP needs to earn the respect of those parked voters in order to be competitive on May 12, 2009. It is possible for Carole James to go from being a respected Leader of the Opposition to a credible Premier in waiting.