Strategic Thoughts

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November 18, 2007

Strong Opposition

British Columbians have a lot to make them concerned. The health system isn't designed to care for an aging population. Young people are looking at a future plagued by environmental disasters caused by global warming. Hundreds of thousands of people are resentful that the good times left them behind. Those who've had the good times are worried that the party is over as stock markets look like an out of control roller coaster and the US economy heads towards recession. People who mind their own business have to worry about being shot as innocent bystanders as a result of gang war violence. Those who care for those least able to protect themselves need to worry about child care, failed child protection and inadequate community services.

With a list like that you'd think that Carole James and the New Democrats could use their last convention before the May 12, 2009 election to spring ahead of the Campbell Liberals and lay out a plan that would appeal to most voters. The dominate news story out of the party's convention is a policy to regulate nominations for the next election. The affirmative action plan requires that a woman be nominated in any riding where an incumbent male NDP MLA decides not to run again. With the 29% MLA pay boost and gold plated pension plan, it is not likely that many such vacancies will occur. The policy also calls for 30% of nominations in ridings not currently held by the party to be filled by women and another 10% to be filled by targeted minorities. If public opinion polls remain as they've been for the past two years, with a 10 point lead for the Campbell Liberals, the likelihood of an affirmative action candidate winning in a constituency not currently held by the NDP is somewhere between slim and none; with a 10 point gap the party will be lucky if it doesn't lose half the seats it currently holds. In that political environment, directing public attention to an affirmative action policy that strips constituencies of their ability to choose who will run rather than to the long list of public policies that need urgent attention shows an amazing lack of judgment. It would be great if the NDP attracted high profile women and minority candidates, but rigging the nomination rules so only candidates in those categories need apply is a formula for mediocrity.

New Democrats can always hope that with 18 months before the next election, Carole James will show that she and her caucus can provide crisp statements on the issues of the day. Clear leadership on an issue or two would help people forget or forgive their poor handling of MLA pay increases, the twinning of the Port Mann bridge and support for the Tsawwassen treaty. It's a safe bet that "vote for us because we've stripped constituencies of their right to choose their own candidate" won't cut it as a winning issue. If nothing changes between now and early 2009, my recommendation is for the NDP to campaign on the need for a strong opposition. A comparison of Campbell's first and second terms demonstrates that good government requires a strong opposition. It would not be good for BC if too many New Democrats were defeated.

 
 

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