June
18, 2007
New
Chinese Based Party Could Win Seats in 2013
According
to the Vancouver Province, BC has a new political party,
the Nation Alliance Party, which is focused on the 350,000
people in B.C. who are of Chinese heritage. The Elections
BC website shows the National Alliance Party registered
with Wei Ping Chen as its leader. Some may think that a political
party based on ethnicity is not a good thing, but as long
as it doesn't violate the Human Rights Act, actions
to increase the political power of any particular ethnic group
are legitimate; this finesses the efforts of major parties
to cater to ethnic votes.
The
Nation Alliance Party may be a few years ahead of itself.
If the referendum on BC-STV passes on May 12, 2009, it will
be implemented in time for the May 14, 2013 provincial election.
In that event, there will likely be dozens of new narrowly
focused political parties seeking to parlay their base into
electing one or more representatives to BC's legislature.
STV,
the Irish voting system, uses fewer but larger multi-MLA constituencies.
In mid-August the Boundaries
Commission will release the proposed boundaries that would
be used in 2013 should the referendum pass. For the sake of
illustration, let's assume that the three current Richmond
constituencies are merged to form one Richmond riding that
would elect three MLAs, and that the four Burnaby ridings
(including Burquitlam) are merged to form one riding that
would elect four MLAs. Recall that in STV you don't mark an
"X" on your ballot, instead you number your preferences
1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and so forth until you get tired, run out of
candidates or decide to stop. The vote
counting then involves a complicated process in which
your vote can be shifted from candidate to candidate. The
key to winning is for a candidate to receive a number of votes
equal to what is called the "quota" which is calculated
as the number of valid ballots cast in a riding divided by
one plus the number of MLAs to be elected, and one is added
to the results of that division. Using the number of ballots
cast in 2005, our merged riding of Richmond would have 62,834
valid votes cast to elect three MLAs, and Burnaby would have
87,162 valid votes cast to elect four MLAs. The magic quota
would be 15,710 in Richmond and 17,433 in Burnaby. In percentage
terms in our example, it would take just 25.0% of the vote
to elect an MLA in Richmond and just 20.0% of the vote to
elect an MLA in Burnaby. If you are surprised by that, you'd
be even more surprised to learn that it takes an even lower
percentage (about 13%) to elect an MLA in a 7 member constituency,
and parts of the province would have such enormous constituencies
and low thresholds. The 25.0% and 20.0% examples for Richmond
and Burnaby are important when considering the electoral prospects
of the new Nation Alliance Party.
Data
on the BC Stats website indicate that 40.0% of the population
in the combination of the current three Richmond constituencies,
and 25.2% of the population in the combination of the current
four Burnaby constituencies is Chinese. In other words, if
the Chinese population turned out to vote as a block for the
new ethnically based political party, BC-STV would virtually
guarantee that they would elect MLAs in Richmond and Burnaby.
Of course politics are not so simple for any "group",
be it based on interests or ethnicity. Some would argue that
internal politics within narrowly defined groups can be more
challenging than anything you see between political parties.
Nevertheless, the opportunity to have a virtually guaranteed
win if internal discipline can be maintained might be a powerful
incentive for narrowly defined parties, including ethnically
defined parties, to register and run candidates under BC-STV.
In
2005, BC-STV was almost adopted; it received a majority vote
in 77 of 79 constituencies (40 were required to pass) and
57.69% of the total provincial vote (60% was required to pass).
Consideration of issues like the new ethnic party might influence
votes both ways in the next referendum on STV. We can only
hope that voters are fully informed as to what the system
might entail the next time they consider changing how MLAs
are elected.
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