June 6 , 2007

Two Months to the Release of Draft Boundaries

On August 15th BC's Electoral Boundaries Commission will release its preliminary report which will provide two sets of recommendations. Subject to revisions that will be made by February 15, 2008, the first set of recommendations will redraw BC's electoral map to reflect population changes since the 2001 election. The second set of recommendations will show what the provincial electoral map would look like if BC-STV is adopted by referendum in 2009 and implemented in 2013.

The recommendation of new boundaries for 2009 is likely to be implemented by the Campbell government without change because the Supreme Court of Canada ruled in 1991 that provincial jurisdiction to draw boundaries is subject to Charter of Rights and Freedoms scrutiny. In particular the court stressed that equal "effective representation" is required rather than strict numerical parity between ridings, and it ruled:

The recommendations of a boundary commission may be challenged under the Charter, but a set of boundaries altered by a government after an independent commission has submitted its recommendations is almost certain to face a judicial challenge. The concept of effective representation is ill-defined; in practice (as permitted under Section 9 of the Electoral Boundaries Commission Act) it means it is acceptable to have 25% variation from the average number of voters per riding. In 2005, there was an average of 34,984 registered voters per constituency. In Bulkley Valley-Stikine there were 18,988, which is 46% below the average. In Vancouver-Burrard there were 55,201, which is 58% above the average. One vote in Bulkley Valley-Stikine was worth three votes in Vancouver-Burrard, and the inequality has increased since 2005.

The last Boundaries Commission, chaired by Josiah Wood, a retired judge of the Court of Appeal, and recently a member of the MLA Compensation Commission, produced the current 79 constituencies which came into effect for the 2001 election. Legislation allows the current Commission, chaired by Justice Bruce Cohen, to recommend up to 85 MLAs, if needed, to ensure effective representation. Just what BC needs, 6 more MLAs at $98,00 a year each plus benefits, support and expenses! Unfortunately, the legislation that empowered the Commission did not give it the authority to recommend a reduction in the number of MLAs.

Whatever number of MLAs is recommended by the Commission, the same number must be included in recommendations for BC-STV scattered throughout fewer multiple-MLA constituencies (each with 2 to 7 MLAs). It will be challenging to understand how the concept of equal effective representation can be applied to constituencies of vastly different sizes with differing numbers of elected representatives. In 2005, BC-STV was almost adopted; it received a majority vote in 77 of 79 constituencies (40 were required to pass) and 57.69% of the total provincial vote (60% was required to pass). Lingering bitterness over the MLA pay raise may prompt more voters to support STV in 2009, since that system is more likely to produce weak governments that are unlikely to be able to push through controversial legislation that is opposed by the public. On the other hand, with the actual boundaries before them, voters may recoil from the quagmire that STV would make of the electoral landscape. One way or the other, a fully informed debate can begin once the initial proposal for boundaries for each of the two alternative systems is made public on August 15, 2007.