Writing in his usual Monday column in The Tyee, Rafe Mair looked at the latest Ipsos Reid poll and argued that NDP Leader Carole James should step down, although the poll showed the NDP up four points, the Liberals down four points and James gaining and ahead of Campbell in approval ratings. Rafe's contention is that James is just too nice to be in provincial politics. I can agree with Rafe that she's nice, but I part ways on the rest of his analysis.

The Ipsos Reid poll released June 22nd was conducted between June 8 and June 13, 2007; it was based on a randomly selected sample of 800 adult British Columbians. With a sample of that size, the results are considered accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, although the percentage error is higher in subgroups such as a specific region or income bracket. It found that 45% of those surveyed would vote Liberal, and 36% would vote NDP. The April Ipsos Reid poll found that 49% would vote Liberal, and 32% would vote NDP. In other words, the gap was cut in half, reduced from a 17% lead for the Campbell Liberals to a 9% lead.

The NDP was behind the Liberals in every category shown by Ipsos Reid in its April poll: region, gender, age, education, and income. In the June poll, the NDP led the Liberals by 8 points on Vancouver Island, it was ahead of the Liberals by 10 points for those with family incomes under $40,000 and 1 point (a statistical tie) for those with family incomes between $40,000 and $80,000. The Liberal advantage was confined to families with incomes of $80,000 or more, and their overall advantage was gained because their support in those higher income families was more than two and a quarter times higher than the NDP's (61% to 28%) - almost the same as it was in the April poll. It can hurt the Liberals to concentrate their support with overwhelming victories in a few ridings while having close races in many others. It is unlikely that the NDP will break through by significantly reducing the Liberal advantage with upper income families, but a comparison of the polls shows that the majority of British Columbians can change their opinions quickly when confronted with the kind of politics they saw in the spring, with issues such as the MLA pay raise and the Basi-Virk trial.

New Democrats recognize that no one is going to challenge James for her leadership before the May 12, 2009 election. She will lead the party with solid support from her caucus, and if the shift shown in the June Ipsos Reid poll becomes a trend, she will be credible when she talks about what she would do as Premier.