January 3 , 2006

Polls aren't Seat Projections

It is hard to make a re-run of the June 2004 election more interesting but we can always count on headlines about a pending Conservative victory "based on recent polls". The underlying stories never reveal how anyone can make seat projections based on a sample of 1,000 Canadians, an average of less than four voters per constituency. Even if the samples are unbiased, the most they can predict is the percentage of the popular vote that each party may receive, not how the percentages translate into seats.

There were 308 seats in the last Canadian parliament, as there will be in the next, making 155 the magic number required for a majority. Quebec is the spoiler for both the Liberals and Conservatives. It has 75 seats: 54 were held by the Bloc Québécois in the last parliament and 21 by the Liberals. It is safe to assume that the Block will take 54 or more seats on January 23rd, meaning that a governing party needs to win 155 or more out of only 254 available seats. In June 28, 2004 the Liberals won 135, the Conservatives 99, the NDP 19 and Chuck Cadman was elected as an independent. It will be harder for the Conservatives to find an additional 56 seats (as well as holding all that they won last time) than it will be for the Liberals to find an additional 20 seats. It is a safe bet that neither party will succeed, making the next parliament again deal with a minority government. If voters really want to punish the Liberals for their scandals, Canada could have a minority Conservative government. If the NDP won 35 seats and the Block 60, it would leave 213 for the other parties. A split between the Liberals and the Conservatives that gave the winning side 120 seats, but less than 155, would then give the NDP, the balance of power.

Rather than wringing hands over every poll of a handful of voters, it is useful to think of the election as 308 by-elections. Jack Layton has promised that if he holds the balance of power, Canadians will be given the opportunity to change our voting system to proportional representation. That opportunity, and the understanding that the next parliament will not last much longer than the last one, might put fear tactics, strategic voting and polls in perspective.