January 13, 2006

"If the election were today ..."

Those are some of the most dangerous words in politics. Peaking too early can spell disaster as candidates take victory for granted, showing the arrogance that usually comes after a few years in power, and voters develop second thoughts.

As shown several times during this campaign, it only takes a few seconds to cause thousands of votes to shift. The perpetually-governing party under the leadership of Paul Martin has suddenly become slapstick comedy as they weave from one self-inflicted wound to another. Popcorn and beer, negative ads that don't work, attacks on Canadian soldiers and imaginary amendments to the Charter of Rights have taken valuable campaign time from the Liberals. The first rule in candidate school for rookies is not to make a mistake that will hijack the central campaign and result in the media focusing on you rather than on the message. Martin must have skipped class that day as he has been forced to spend days responding to mistakes and he doesn't seem to have a message.

The Liberals' death spiral is dangerous for the other parties, especially for Stephen Harper. He needs to make it through the rest of the campaign, 11 long days as of Friday the 13th, without following Martin's example. In 2004 Randy White provided grist for the Liberal mill; this time Conservative candidates are far more disciplined. Harper responded appropriately by quickly cutting lose his candidate in BC's Southern Interior. Others will get the message. In the dozens of interviews I've watched, skilled interviewers lead Conservatives to the precipice but the candidates quickly pull away and provide an answer that satisfies mainstream Canada. A minority Conservative government simply isn't scary enough to justify keeping the discredited Liberals in power. If the Block wins 60 seats in Quebec and the NDP 30 across Canada, it doesn't look like the Conservatives could find 155 or more seats out of the remaining 218, which would mean reducing the Liberals to less than 63, so a majority Conservative government is unlikely.

A minority Conservative government could be prevented from going to extremes while the Liberals began the long-overdue process of sorting themselves out. In that scenario more NDP MPs work like the larger NDP opposition in Victoria by helping government to work better. With a minority Conservative government some of Jack Layton's promises might get transformed into action, for example, a vote on proportional representation and protection of social programs. Stephen Harper announced a plank in his platform on affordable housing; while the specifics can be debated, that is the type of announcement which might signal room to negotiate between the NDP and a Conservative minority.

There will be surprises before January 23rd. None of the campaigns can control everything, but the leaders should know enough not to behave like Martin and trip themselves. The test will be how the leaders respond to the unexpected, and the unexpected is usually created by one's own candidates.