January 10, 2006

Liberal Leadership Race

At the all-candidates meeting I attended in North Vancouver this morning, Paul Martin's name was not mentioned once. The incumbent Liberal, Don Bell, admitted that he was blindsided by Martin's announcement during the leadership debate that a way would be devised under a Liberal government to prevent the notwithstanding clause from ever being used by the federal government. The audience was polite; no one asked what hope there is for Canada if the Liberals get re-elected after all the recent scandals, and no one asked Bell who he would back in the upcoming Liberal leadership race.

Keep in mind that Paul Martin rose to power through what might be described as Canada's first political coup. Chrétien Liberals might be pointing fingers now that some candidates believe, as reported in the Hill Times on January 9th and echoed in the post-debate issue of the Globe & Mail, that they are receiving little or no help from their central campaign. A loss by the perpetually-governing party is probably what they need to straighten themselves out. Voters cannot be so mean as to deprive pundits of the fun of watching a leadership race in the aftermath of what amounted to a political civil war.

One of the first names that comes to mind when thinking about Martin's successor is Canadian Ambassador to the United States, former New Brunswick Premier Frank McKenna. John Manley may have different ideas. There is already a "John Manley for Leader" blog, last updated December 29, 2005, with plenty of criticism of Martin. It will be interesting to see whether political turncoats like Keith Martin, Belinda Stronach or Ujjal Dosanjh have enough pull within the Liberal party to have any influence during a leadership race. Would their endorsement help or hurt a candidate? What will become of "stars" like David Emerson? Should he be re-elected, can he tolerate a spell in opposition or will other careers beckon? Without the power of patronage appointments, party operatives will not have parachutes; thousands of political appointments, from citizenship judges to ambassadors, will change with a change of government. Will many of the job hunters have time and energy to devote to the internal politics of a leadership race?

Can the Liberals forestall speculation on their leadership race during the final days of the campaign? Unless Paul Martin has a miracle up his sleeve, some incumbents might start playing lifeboat and publicly criticize their government in an attempt to save themselves. Candidates don't have to be blindsided very often by policy made up in the campaign plane before they turn on the central campaign and their leader. Perhaps not mentioning Martin by name was the wisest thing Don Bell could do.