British
Columbians are probably weary after three elections, federal,
provincial and municipal, in the last 9 months, but federal
politicians will immediately start preparing for the next
campaign. With the Liberals in disarray they are not likely
to contribute to the defeat of Prime Minister Harper's minority
government but 18 to 24 months is probably the longest that
can be expected in the absence of a majority. That is probably
a good thing because keeping an eye on the next election
will help to keep the government in tune with Canadians
and away from philosophical extremes.
BC got
a great deal from the federal Liberals, and maybe that explains
why it went contrary to the rest of the country and reduced
the number of Conservative MPs from 22 to 17 or maybe it's
just the usual contrary habit of BC voters. Federal transfer
payments to BC rose from $2.6 billion for the fiscal year
ended March 31, 2000 to over $5.6 billion estimated for
the fiscal year ending March 31, 2006. In addition, BC has
benefited from federal commitments to the RAV line, the
2010 games, the convention centre expansion and several
highway projects. That funding should not be at risk under
the new government, but it will be difficult to expand further
upon Ottawa's largess. Expensive promises like sewage treatment
for Victoria are likely to require a lot of time-consuming
study.
One
of the biggest impacts of the change in governments will
be seen in new "networking". Yesterday's movers
and shakers are powerless; key Liberal lobbyists and strategists
have lost their influence. Failed candidates and their helpers
will not be able to look to an internally focused Liberal
party for patronage appointments. New networks of Conservative
contacts will take their place, but if Harper keeps his
word, there will be less outright patronage and greater
accountability. He has set the bar high with his promises
of a fixed election date, political financing reform, an
expanded role for the Auditor General, and an independent
ethics commissioner; these reforms will receive support
from the majority of the new Parliament.
Mr.
Harper promised to freeze the sale of Ridley Coal Terminal
in Prince Rupert until a review is completed. The review
must be seen to do more than rubber stamp the sale. It must
address the concern of all of the companies that use the
port, that a new owner won't use its power to the disadvantage
of its competitors. BC's Kevin Falcon may have to eat some
of his words from the last session of BC's legislature where
he defended the sale.
The
promised review of leaky condos will be welcomed by many
British Columbians but no one should get their hopes up
that it will lead to the federal government accepting any
liability. Expect the review to take longer than the first
term of the Harper government.
The
Conservatives promised to "Ensure the rigorous enforcement
of federal fishing regulations on the Fraser River and the
preservation of wild salmon stocks." The BC Legislature's
Special Committee on Sustainable Aquaculture will be interested
in talking to the Federal Fisheries Minister about that
promise, particularly in light of the promise to "Work
with the provincial government to create joint fishery management
councils." Many British Columbians, not the least of
whom is Rafe Mair, don't trust the Campbell government to
protect wild salmon.
The
new government deserves a honeymoon that gives it a chance
to show Canadians what it can do. The biggest threat to
the government will come, not from any opposition party,
but from its own supporters. Mr. Harper must resist pressures
to govern in a style that differs from how he campaigned.
He must resist temptations to engage in creative interpretations
of his campaign promises. Moderate, honest, compassionate
government is demanded by Canadians. If Mr. Harper can deliver,
he may be able to look forward to the next election. If
he can't, the expanded NDP caucus will be there to remind
him that he cannot govern as if he had a majority.
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