One
definition
of cognitive dissonance is "holding a belief plainly
at odds with the evidence, usually because the belief has
been held and cherished for a long time." A variant
is called "post-decision
dissonance" which is when we increase our assessment
that a decision is correct once the decision is made. Paul
Martin's claim that his party is posed to make a comeback
victory as they did in 2004 might be call delusional if
it weren't for psychological theories of dissonance that
attempt to explain irrational thinking.
Watch
for a sea
change in Liberal spin after the election when the rhetoric
shifts from "we can do it" to "was it Jean's
or Paul's fault". Dark times are ahead for the perpetually
governing party as they serve a time-out to sort themselves
out.
Stephen
Harper and Jack Layton both deserve credit for running almost
flawless campaigns. Harper slipped near the finish line
when he criticized judges, and Layton erred when he apologized
for using a nonprofit
health centre that was founded in 1945. Harper's error
reflected values; Layton's merely showed he wasn't familiar
with some medical history. Neither leader committed vote-losing
errors compared to Paul Martin who had trouble doing anything
right. From "popcorn and beer" to antagonizing
the military, Martin led what is arguably the worst federal
election campaign in the history of the Liberal party. He
never seized control of the agenda, and he frequently looked
like a deer caught in the headlights. On the eve of the
election the NDP continues to run ads calling for the rejection
of the corrupt Liberal party - very strong words which defy
refutation.
It is
unlikely that last minute campaigning will shift any votes.
Whether it is post-decision dissonance or some other pattern
of rationalization, most voters have made up their minds,
turned off the debate and are looking forward to giving
the Liberals what they richly deserve. With any luck a minority
Conservative government will succeed them with enough New
Democrat MPs to keep them sensitive to mainstream Canada.
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