November 10, 2006

Campbell's Contradiction

Thanks to the generosity of the BC Liberal party, the full text of Premier Campbell's address to the 2006 BC Liberal convention is now available online. One of the apparent contradictions in his speech is illustrated by the following excerpts:

Get this straight; according to Campbell, health care costs are growing faster than our ability to pay but we can afford tax cuts. Recall that Campbell made $143 million per year in corporate tax cuts after the last election; during the May 2005 election campaign, he didn't bother to mention that he was going to do that. This time he has given fair warning that he values tax cuts ahead of health care, and he's made that clear before the regional meeting portion of the "conversation on health care" has started. If the public fails to respond, Campbell will have every reason to believe that most British Columbians agree with him that it is reasonable to make hallway medicine normal in order to fund tax cuts. Those who disagree can voice their concerns, including on the comments section of the conversation's website.

What does it mean to say that health costs "are growing at two to three times the rate of our ability to pay"? How fast are health costs growing, and how does that compare to our ability to pay? According to the Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI), provincial health expenditure as a percentage of provincial gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to be 7.1% in fiscal year 2006-07, down from a high of 7.8% in 2002-03. CIHI's most recent report also said: "The highest per capita spending on health among the provinces in 2006-2007 is projected to be in Alberta ($3,315) and Manitoba ($3,284), while the lowest is expected to be in Quebec ($2,581) and Prince Edward Island ($2,749)." Per capita health spending in BC ranks 8th, at $2,941. If CIHI has it right, only PEI and Quebec will spend less per person on public health care in 2006-07.

According to the February 2006 budget, government revenue was $27.7 billion in 2002-03, and is expected to reach $36.6 billion by 2008-09. In her First Quarterly Report 2006-07, Finance Minister Carole Taylor increased the projection for revenue in 2008-09 to $37.7 billion. If that projection is correct, revenue will increase by more than 36% in 6 years. Health spending is not growing that fast, so what could Campbell mean when he says it is growing faster than our ability to pay? He owes it to British Columbians to document his concerns so as to better inform his $10 million conversation on health care, and to allow British Columbians to respond to his plan to put tax cuts ahead of health spending.