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March 21, 2005

Wishful Thinking and STV

Supporters of the Irish voting system recommended by the Citizens' Assembly can be accused of wishful thinking in their belief that changing the voting system will change how politicians behave or how government works. Most experienced politicians and political observers agree that too much power is centralized in the office of the first minister; it takes a caucus with guts to change that, not a change in the voting system. The faint hope offered by supporters of the "single transferable vote" (STV) is that it will result in more minority governments thereby weakening the power of the Premier. It is arguable whether that would be a good thing, but that argument is irrelevant if STV would continue to elect majority governments as would be the case if most people continue to vote by party.

The last general election in which British Columbia had dual member constituencies was in 1986, when of the 69 members in the legislature, 17 were elected from two member ridings. Voters had two votes if there were two members to be elected in their constituency. In 16 ridings, either two New Democrats or two Socreds were elected. The two winning candidates frequently had differences of 2,000 votes or more, but the third place candidate usually came nowhere close. Dewdney, in the Fraser Valley, was an exception where the Socreds won with Austin Pelton at 15,614, and Norman Jacobsen at 15,328; the New Democrats were close with Sophie Weremchuk at 15,279 and Bill Hartley at 14,923. The split riding was Vancouver-Point Grey where Kim Campbell (later to become Prime Minister) was elected for the Socreds with 19,716, and Darleen Marzari was elected for the NDP with 18,311; Pat McGeer finished in third place for the Socreds with 18,256, and Richard Gathercole was in fourth for the NDP with 15,729. As a popular former City Councillor, Marzari broke the pattern and went above the party vote. In 16 of 17 cases people voted primarily for a party. Marzari's success proves that STV is not needed to break the mold; she succeeded in first past the post and went on in 1991 to be re-elected in a re-distributed single member riding.

In his paper titled "Candidate centred but party wrapped: campaigning in Ireland under STV", Michael Marsh of Trinity College, Dublin, wrote that "transfer patterns indicate that most people who give their first preference vote to a candidate of one party go on to give their subsequent preference to another candidate from that same party when such candidates are available; that is, they appear to vote for parties rather than candidates."

In the Republic of Ireland since 1932 Fianna Fáil has received between 39.1% and 50.6% of the vote; Fine Gael received between 19.8% and 39.2%; other parties rarely have received much over 10% of the total vote. For over 50 years BC has been dominated by two parties which are even more closely balanced, with popular support near 40% each. The example found in material published by the Citizens' Assembly shows voters unrealistically marking their votes 1, 2, 3, 4, etc. for candidates from different parties. The pamphlet from the Assembly asserts that "BC-STV is also the only proportional system that allows independent candidates a real chance to be elected. Although increasingly rare, we believe that independents must have opportunities to participate in our provincial elections equal to candidates who work through political parties." With or without STV, it is highly unlikely that an independent would be elected.

BC-STV would result in large constituencies with between 2 and 7 MLAs. Under STV the number required to be elected is not the most votes but a mathematically determined quota, the number of votes divided by one plus the number of MLAs to be elected, so in the two member riding it would take 33.3% to win but in a seven member riding it would take only 12.5%. If people vote party slates and then stop marking, there would be no transfer votes between parties. Consequently, with only 12% in the opinion polls, no Green would be elected, and none would stand even a slim chance in the smaller ridings. That means that, like Malta, BC would remain a two party province with a majority government. With that outcome all the tinkering by the Citizens' Assembly would change nothing that cannot be accomplished within the current system.

Minority governments and the election of independents, like other "benefits" claimed by the Citizens' Assembly, are wishful thinking. A "star candidate", like Marzari, doesn't need a change in the voting system to break through and receive more than the party vote. Small parties and independents would not benefit from larger constituencies and complex rules for counting ballots.

 

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