Supporters
of the Irish voting system recommended by the Citizens'
Assembly can be accused of wishful thinking in their belief
that changing the voting system will change how politicians
behave or how government works. Most experienced politicians
and political observers agree that too much power is centralized
in the office of the first minister; it takes a caucus with
guts to change that, not a change in the voting system.
The faint hope offered by supporters of the "single
transferable vote" (STV) is that it will result in
more minority governments thereby weakening the power of
the Premier. It is arguable whether that would be a good
thing, but that argument is irrelevant if STV would continue
to elect majority governments as would be the case if most
people continue to vote by party.
The
last general election in which British Columbia had dual
member constituencies was in 1986, when of the 69 members
in the legislature, 17 were elected from two member ridings.
Voters had two votes if there were two members to be elected
in their constituency. In 16 ridings, either two New Democrats
or two Socreds were elected. The two winning candidates
frequently had differences of 2,000 votes or more, but the
third place candidate usually came nowhere close. Dewdney,
in the Fraser Valley, was an exception where the Socreds
won with Austin Pelton at 15,614, and Norman Jacobsen at
15,328; the New Democrats were close with Sophie Weremchuk
at 15,279 and Bill Hartley at 14,923. The split riding was
Vancouver-Point Grey where Kim Campbell (later to become
Prime Minister) was elected for the Socreds with 19,716,
and Darleen Marzari was elected for the NDP with 18,311;
Pat McGeer finished in third place for the Socreds with
18,256, and Richard Gathercole was in fourth for the NDP
with 15,729. As a popular former City Councillor, Marzari
broke the pattern and went above the party vote. In 16
of 17 cases people voted primarily for a party. Marzari's
success proves that STV is not needed to break the mold;
she succeeded in first past the post and went on in 1991
to be re-elected in a re-distributed single member riding.
In his
paper titled "Candidate centred but party wrapped:
campaigning in Ireland under STV", Michael
Marsh of Trinity College, Dublin, wrote that "transfer
patterns indicate that most people who give their first
preference vote to a candidate of one party go on to give
their subsequent preference to another candidate from that
same party when such candidates are available; that is,
they appear to vote for parties rather than candidates."
In the
Republic of Ireland since 1932 Fianna Fáil has received
between 39.1% and 50.6% of the vote; Fine Gael received
between 19.8% and 39.2%; other parties rarely have received
much over 10% of the total vote. For over 50 years BC has
been dominated by two parties which are even more closely
balanced, with popular support near 40% each. The example
found in material published by the Citizens' Assembly shows
voters unrealistically marking their votes 1, 2, 3, 4, etc.
for candidates from different parties. The pamphlet from
the Assembly asserts that "BC-STV is also the only
proportional system that allows independent candidates a
real chance to be elected. Although increasingly rare, we
believe that independents must have opportunities to participate
in our provincial elections equal to candidates who work
through political parties." With or without STV, it
is highly unlikely that an independent would be elected.
BC-STV
would result in large constituencies with between 2 and
7 MLAs. Under STV the number required to be elected is not
the most votes but a mathematically determined quota, the
number of votes divided by one plus the number of MLAs to
be elected, so in the two member riding it would take 33.3%
to win but in a seven member riding it would take only 12.5%.
If people vote party slates and then stop marking, there
would be no transfer votes between parties. Consequently,
with only 12% in the opinion polls, no Green would be elected,
and none would stand even a slim chance in the smaller ridings.
That means that, like Malta, BC would remain a two party
province with a majority government. With that outcome all
the tinkering by the Citizens' Assembly would change nothing
that cannot be accomplished within the current system.
Minority
governments and the election of independents, like other
"benefits" claimed by the Citizens' Assembly,
are wishful thinking. A "star candidate", like
Marzari, doesn't need a change in the voting system to break
through and receive more than the party vote. Small parties
and independents would not benefit from larger constituencies
and complex rules for counting ballots.