May4, 2005

TV Debate 2005

Gordon Campbell would no doubt rather eat a can of worms than appear in a televised debate with Carole James and Adrianne Carr. There was no way for Campbell to get out of the debate without making his failure to appear one of the major issues of the campaign. During the debate, he looked like he was eating a can of worms.

British Columbians now know why Gordon Campbell is being kept in a protective bubble. He wasn't able to smile or show humour in an hour of debate. Adrianne Carr put some pressure on Campbell but frequently got in the way so that Carole James had to ask her to please wait so Campbell could answer the challenge put to him. James seemed to control the flow of the debate, frequently putting questions to Campbell as he squirmed.

Campbell's campaign in a bubble will receive more attention as a result of his poor performance in the debate. His candidates are refusing to appear in many all candidates' meetings just as he is refusing to make himself available to the public. The bubble may become as much an issue as trust and meanness in the remainder of the campaign.

The leaders' debate covered six topics in an intensely filled sixty minutes. The format worked far better than some expected. After debates on the economy and health care, the third topic was education. Campbell attempted to blame school trustees for fewer teacher-librarians. After James put the heat on Campbell for cuts, Carr shouted "she is right."

Those who followed the debate on radio missed some of the best parts; the body language said a great deal. Campbell looked tense; James looked like she was enjoying the debate and appeared confident and personable.

Ipsos-Reid conducted a poll immediately after the debate so as to obtain a sample that was not "contaminated" by commentary from pundits and the media. Ideally, they will also poll the population that didn't listen to the debate. Many, perhaps most, voters will get their information from the media, not from personally witnessing the debate. If the media widely report the uncontaminated poll, this might minimize their influence on the rest of the population, but that leaves open the question of whether Ipsos-Reid was able to separate analysis of the debate from opinions formed prior to the debate.

Immediate reaction on Michael Smyth's talk show suggested that Campbell lost the debate. May 17th , not any poll, will determine who voters feel they can trust.