With less than 9 weeks to go until voting day, the attention of political pundits turns to which constituencies will determine who forms the government. This exercise is more difficult than usual because both the 2001 and 1996 elections were abnormalities. The boundaries were changed after 1996 and four new constituencies were added, bringing the total to 79.

In the 2001 sweep the Campbell Liberals won less than 50% of the vote in just 19 ridings. In Surrey-Panorama Ridge, where the NDP's Jagrup Brar recently won the by-election with 54%, the Liberals took 59% in 2001. They performed worse in Surrey-Green Timbers, Surrey-Newton and Surrey-Whalley. Surrey-Whalley was the 11th best seat for the NDP in 1996 and the 11th worst for the Liberals in 2001 although the boundaries were slightly changed. In a strong campaign where traditional voting patterns return, Brar is likely to be re-elected in Surrey-Panorama Ridge and joined by Bruce Ralston in Surrey-Whalley, Harry Bains in Surrey-Newton and Sue Hammell in Surrey-Green Timbers.

Seven or eight seats on Vancouver Island, a half dozen in Vancouver, and seven or eight in Burnaby-Fraser Valley would put the NDP up to 26 seats. Four seats in the Kootenays and three between Prince Rupert and Prince George would put the total up to 33. The contests in Kamloops, Kamloops-North Thompson, Yale-Lilloett, Cariboo-South, Delta North could put the NDP within reach of the magic 40 if a couple of additional seats in the Lower Mainland swing against Campbell. Seat by seat speculation on these regions will garner more attention in the weeks ahead.

With changed boundaries and abnormal elections, there is not much to work with when making seat projections for 2005. The little data that does exist suggests that the NDP should do better, but it is still the underdog in the fight to form government.