In the past year the Mustel Group has published polls showing the Campbell Liberals as high as 46% and as low as 33%; during the same period they showed the NDP as high as 45% and as low as 37%. Their polls are said to have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5% at the 95% confidence level. During the past year they have shown a gap ranging from twelve points to the benefit of the NDP to six points to the benefit of the Liberals. In September and October, 2004, and in February, 2005, they found a significant six point lead for the Liberals.

Ipsos-Reid is the major competing polling company. Its quarterly polls are based on a sample size of 800 compared to a sample of just over 500 taken by the Mustel Group. Unlike the Mustel Group, Ipsos-Reid has not found big shifts in support. Their last four polls show the Liberals at a high of 41% and a low of 38%, and showed the NDP at a high of 42% and a low of 38%. In March 2004 they had the NDP with a 3 point lead; in the three subsequent polls the Liberals had the lead first at 1 point, then at 2 points and growing to 3 points in December 2004. Unlike the results found by the Mustel Group, the gaps found by Ipsos-Reid are not statistically significant. Ipsos-Reid should have its next poll on provincial voting intentions out in late March.

While it is unusual for a government to go into an election enjoying over 40% support in the polls, it must be noticed that the government does not enjoy majority support. Whether or not they are given a second term may depend on whether those who say they are going to vote Green can be persuaded to support the NDP.