For
the first time since the May 17th vote, a poll has been published
that attempts to interpret the referendum on BC-STV. Nordic
Research Group surveyed 806 British Columbians between
May 31 and June 5, 2005. The poll was part of NRG Nordic Research
Group's monthly omnibus poll. People were asked how they voted
and why. Only 15% said they were "very informed about
STV"; 45% of those who voted yes said "it's time
for a change". The firm states that the overall results
have a margin of error of +/- 3.5%, 19 times out of 20.
Nordic
asked whether STV should be implemented since it came so
close, a majority in 77 of 79 constituencies (40 were required
to pass) and 57.69% of the total provincial vote (60% was
required to pass). 47% said the referendum failed so STV
should be rejected, 39% said it was close enough to go ahead
with STV, and 14% didn't know or refused to answer.
It would
be interesting if other polling firms conducted similar
research. Since Premier Campbell stirred interest in change,
his government might commission a poll and release the results
it obtains, something that would be a refreshing change
for a government that is far from open.
Campbell
appears likely to displease a substantial portion of British
Columbians no matter what he does. He has said nothing about
how he voted in the referendum. More people oppose going
ahead with STV (47%) than voted for the BC Liberals (45.8%),
yet 39% is a substantial minority to ignore. If polling
done by Ipsos-Reid before the election was accurate, Liberal
voters are likely to make up a disproportionate share of
those who oppose going ahead with STV. In their April 30th
poll of 1050 British Columbians, only 37% of those who said
they intended to vote Liberal also said they intended to
vote yes in the referendum, 46% of NDP voters said they
would vote yes.
Perhaps
Campbell can demonstrate a new style of working with the
Opposition that might satisfy voters that the message about
change has been heard. A longer question period and direct
answers rather than posturing would be a good start.
Nordic's
poll was released on June 13th and covered by some radio
stations. The Vancouver Sun which editorially endorsed STV
ran a nearly full page opinion piece on June 14th calling
for STV to be implemented. No story in the paper mentioned
the results of Nordic's poll.
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