May 17, 2005

Next Vote in 2008 or 2009?

The kickoff to the next election campaign starts today; some would say it started a couple of years ago. If Gordon Campbell wins less than 50 seats in today's vote, his leadership could be challenged. Carole James will secure her leadership as long as the NDP wins 20 or more seats. Voters who are thinking of voting Green may not be able to defeat the Campbell government by switching to the NDP, but they may be able to personally defeat Campbell's continued leadership by reducing his caucus to less than 50 seats. For many people a vote for the NDP is an opportunity to hold Campbell accountable for cutting most government services by 30-40%, selling BC Rail, cutting services to Children and Families, doubling gambling and hurting seniors. It is payback time; with a vote for the NDP a direct challenge to Campbell's hold on the party he hijacked from Gordon Wilson.

The next six months will define a New Era in BC politics, not a Golden Decade, but a challenge to a liberal renaissance. Hard core conservatives in the Campbell caucus will be challenged by new liberals at the same time that the federal government is involved in a fight to the finish with Stephen Harper. How will Mary Polak, Kevin Falcon and Rich Coleman work with Wally Opal and Carole Taylor? There could be some tensions in the new Campbell caucus if the balance of power is held to a few seats so that the vote of every member of caucus really matters.

Campbell has tried to make the economy the central issue of the 2005 election campaign. Does that mean that he will take responsibility for any economic downturn that may occur in the next three or four years? Many say that he got lucky in 2005 with high commodity prices and low interest rates, but Campbell claimed that BC benefited more than the rest of Canada because of the policies of his government. The watch will now be on for how BC compares to the rest of Canada for the next several years.

If Gordon Campbell wins a second term, he owes it to British Columbians to immediately declare the date of the next election. He won praise for being the first Premier to set fixed election dates, but he has said that May is not a good time because it does not allow the Auditor General to verify the books. He could move the date to the fall of 2008 or to the fall of 2009. The fall of 2008 would mean a three and a half year term similar to that customarily practiced by WAC Bennett; the fall of 2009 would put Campbell close to the five year camp of VanderZalm, Clark and Dosanjh. On election night 2005 he should immediately set the date for the next election; otherwise BC will no longer have a fixed election date.