Canada Election 2006

This space is usually devoted to provincial politics and policy but it is impossible to ignore the federal election, especially when it is squeezing other news out of the limited space between the advertisements in the commercial media. While much has already been said about a winter election that overlaps the Christmas holidays, it should be noted that the distractions will make it easier on voters who are inclined to pay as little attention as possible to the early stages of the campaign. Eggnog, shopping and open houses are a welcome relief to media spin on what each leader is saying. While the distractions might make a long campaign more bearable for most voters, they will pose difficult hurdles for the politicians. It takes hundreds of volunteers in each constituency to run a successful election campaign. Customary door knockers and telephoners will have family commitments that take priority. That might make the central campaigns, which focus on the daily activities of each leader, even more important than usual.

Polling companies will be busy trying to explain how sample sizes of 1,000 can be used to predict the seat count in our 308 member Parliament. At dissolution, the standings were 133 Liberals, 98 Conservatives, 53 Block, 18 NDP, 4 Independents and 2 Vacant. If 3 people where sampled in each constituency from coast to coast, the resulting poll would have as many or more participants as the typical poll that will be published throughout the campaign. Try guessing the outcome of the election for your constituency based on talking to three of your neighbours. The polls may come within their specified margin of error when it comes to predicting the split in the national popular vote, but they don't have what it takes to translate that into seat projections. Consider the competing polls as nothing but another source of entertainment during the campaign; don't take them so seriously as to let them influence your vote.

As a long time New Democrat, I'll vote NDP even though it was sometime before WWII that a member of my party won in a federal election in North Vancouver. Many voters are like that, but enough swing so as to make the outcome unpredictable. Seat projections require some understanding of traditional voting patterns in each of the country's 308 ridings. Many contests will be close, but by tradition they may be close two way races. In a few instances, three way contests will be close enough so the third place contestant may be accused of being a spoiler. In the June 2004 election former IWA President Dave Haggard ran for the Liberals and helped elect Conservative Paul Forseth in New Westminster-Coquitlam; the final count was Liberal Haggard 13,080, NDP McClurg 15,580, Conservative Forseth 15,693. If just 114 of Haggard's votes had gone NDP, the NDP's McClurg would have won. This time round former Campbell cabinet minister Joyce Murray is representing the Liberals and former NDP MP Dawn Black is running for the NDP, which puts the riding in the watch-to-win category for the New Democrats.

While some pundits claim that little has changed in the 18 months between election day, January 23, 2006, and the last election, there are enough close races and sufficient changed circumstances to make the campaign interesting for those who focus on selected campaigns rather than on the national polling numbers. This site will remain focused on provincial politics and policy but from time to time some attention will be paid to a few of BC's 36 constituencies that have exciting races.