April 25, 2005

BCers on the Move - A Reality Check

In 2004, 23,504 British Columbians moved to Alberta. You won't hear that in the Campbell Liberal advertisements that claim young people are moving back to BC. Fair reporting calls for revealing that tens of thousands of people move throughout Canada every year. Last year 23,795 people moved from Alberta to BC, for a net gain of 291. Overall 47,650 people moved from BC to other provinces last year while 54,730 moved to BC from other parts of Canada, for a net gain of 7,080.

BC has always had positive population growth, made up of natural increase, international net-migration and inter-provincial net-migration, even though there have been a few years when more people moved to other provinces than moved to BC. Between 1972 and 2004, in-migration to BC from other parts of Canada ranged from a low of 40,000 to a high of 89,000, while out-migration to other provinces ranged from a low of 38,000 to a high of 51,000. Net inter-provincial migration for BC was negative in 1976, 1983, 1986 and 1998-2003. The highest negative net migration was 14,610 in 2000. The highest positive net migration was 41,000 in 1981, followed by 40,000 in 1993.

There are no published data on how many people are moving for the second or third time and are going to a province where they previously lived, hence it is not possible to say how many are "moving back". Statistics Canada publishes data on the age and gender of those who move between provinces. For those age 65 and over, BC's net inter-provincial migration was positive in all of the years 1972-2004 except for 2000. In that year, 2,457 seniors moved to BC while 2,616 left. In 2004, 75.5% of BC's inter-provincial in-migrants were age 15-64; 74.7% of out-migrants were 15-64. In all years since 1990, the 15-64 age bracket represents a higher proportion of in-migrants than of out-migrants.

The Campbell Liberals are trying to use inter-provincial migration statistics in their campaign messages and advertisements. The statistics are not consistent with their story, but after four years of breaking their trust with British Columbians, it should come as no surprise that Liberal ads fall short of the full truth.