The March 2005 Ipsos-Reid poll puts the split between decided voters at 46% for the Campbell Liberals, 39% for the NDP and 12% for the Greens. That is a 2 point shift up for the Liberals, and 2 point shift down for the NDP relative to the December Ipsos-Reid poll. More interestingly, it is a 12 point shift down for the Liberals and a 17 point shift up for the NDP relative to the actual results in the 2001 election, or if one is comparing to the last Ipsos-Reid poll before that election it is a 17 point shift down for the Liberals and a 23 point shift up for the NDP. The NDP has gone from a near death experience to having a chance as an underdog in the May 2005 election. In several constituencies, as happened in 2001, Green voters will determine whether the Liberal or NDP candidate wins. This time they might also determine who forms the government.

The aggregate Ipsos-Reid polling results hide some fascinating details. In the Lower Mainland the Liberals enjoy a commanding lead of 14 points, 51% Liberal, 37% NDP. In the rest of the province, the NDP is one point ahead, 40% Liberal, 41% NDP. On Vancouver Island and the Coast the NDP enjoys a six point lead. The Liberal's lead in the Lower Mainland may be misleading; their vote is highly concentrated, or as some might say, they like to live together. Discounting the extreme results of the 2001 election, in 1996 in ridings like West Vancouver-Capilano, the Liberals won by 71%; in Vancouver-Langara they won by 60%. That's one reason some people object to the Citizen's Assembly's proposal for STV which would allow those surplus votes to spill over to adjacent ridings and swamp other parties by essentially being counted twice. In our current system with one MLA per voter, it is possible for the NDP to win 18 seats, a fair share in the Lower Mainland despite the Liberal's advantage in the polls. The outcome of the election could turn on ridings outside of the Lower Mainland where party support is more evenly divided.

The latest poll puts the Green party at 12%, 8% in the Lower Mainland and 16% outside the Lower Mainland. STV would be disastrous for the Greens since smaller (2 or 3 member) consistencies outside the Lower Mainland would guarantee that they couldn't win a seat, just as is the case now where they can influence the outcome but not win a seat.

The 7 point lead enjoyed by the Liberals in the Ipsos-Reid poll should not be interpreted as meaning that they have the election sewed up. Nevertheless, it should be taken as a warning for very serious thought about how Gordon Campbell would interpret a second win. In 2001 he took the NDP's loss as meaning that he had a blank cheque. Nothing in his New Era Document suggested that services would be cut by 30-40% while the tax burden was shifted to MSP premiums and user fees in order to pay for tax cuts in the highest tax bracket. Every effort should be made to get him on the record with respect to how he would interpret a new mandate. Would it be another blank cheque? Could he privatize ICBC, more of BC Hydro and much more crown lands and parks? Exactly where would he draw the line?