April 22, 2005

High Stakes Politics

Shortly after the last provincial election Premier Gordon Campbell set May 17, 2005, as the date for the next election. That was one of his few changes which has received support from all sides of the political spectrum. In his televised appeal to Canadians, Prime Minister Paul Martin also indicated that he is willing to relinquish control over the next election date. He promised to "call a general election within 30 days of the publication of the commission's final report and recommendations." With those words, Prime Minister Martin said that Justice John Gomery would determine the date of the next election even if that meant going to the polls in December or January. More importantly, with those words, Martin indicated that the sponsorship scandal is more important than any other issue facing Canadians and it will determine the election date if the opposition doesn't force an earlier election.

Why would Stephen Harper, Gilles Duceppe and Jack Layton agree to Martin's proposal? Martin is trying to take another lesson out of Gordon Campbell's play book. He is proposing that the opposition parties grant him the time to run around the country and campaign using tax dollars just like Campbell did for the past six months with government advertising and hundreds of announcements. Martin is already in campaign mode with announcements on changes to immigration policy and a love-in with Mayor Larry Campbell on grants to municipalities from the federal gas tax. The Liberals must be hoping that six months or more of publicly financed promises might dig them out of the biggest scandal in modern Canadian history.

The desperation and collapse of the federal Liberals will impact the Campbell Liberals in three important ways. First, the "brand name" Liberal could have negative associations for many voters. The Mustel Group continued to poll on provincial voting intentions throughout last year's federal election campaign. During that campaign the Campbell Liberals polled their lowest, 33%, and the NDP its highest, 45%, of any time in the past decade. Second, the coalition led by Gordon Campbell is made up of federal Liberals and Conservatives. In the midst of a provincial election campaign, his key staff and organizers are preparing to do battle with each other over who will govern Canada. That's not the kind of thing that makes for good teamwork. Third, the raid on the legislature, complete with the naming of high profile personalities who worked for both Martin and Campbell, will not come before the court until after the May 17th election, but the whiff of Liberal scandal will remind some voters that there is a great deal of unfinished business before a clean bill of health can be issued for the provincial Liberals.

Provincial election coverage is likely to come after daily news coverage about Liberal corruption for days to come. Whether a federal election comes this spring or 30 days after the publication of Gomery's report, when it is over either Paul Martin or Stephen Harper will be finished. The loser will not be given another chance. In the meantime, Gordon Campbell has to worry how much of Martin's troubles will plague his election plans.