"I'm comfortable with what we said; I can understand how people say that's not what they expected."
Premier Gordon Campbell in year-end interview with Keith Baldrey, broadcast on Global, December 27, 2004

If Campbell is comfortable with what he said before the last election, no one should trust anything he says he would do in the next four years. Even Attorney General Geoff Plant openly admits that the Campbell government expanded gambling, but the Premier is in denial. He still won't admit that he sold BC Rail, a sale mired in scandal that warrants a public enquiry. The Ministry of Children and Family Development is in chaos that could be costing lives as a result of cuts in the number of line level child protection workers; Campbell promised to do the opposite. How can Campbell possibly be comfortable with what he said? Compare Campbell's pre-election promises with the effort Carole James is making to bring expectations in line with reality.

Campbell will make every effort to campaign, not on his record of broken promises and disappointments, but against organized labour and against the Clark-Dosanjh government of 1996-2001. An example of his pre-election rhetoric can be found in the regular column written by the Speaker of the BC Legislature, Claude Richmond, whose "MLA Report" was published December 13th, 2004, in Daily News, Kamloops. Richmond claimed that according to an independent review panel "the NDP left us with a $3.8 billion structural deficit". The handpicked panel was appointed by Campbell prior to his swearing in ceremony in June 2001. Taxes were cut by $2.2 billion prior to the panel concluding its report on July 23, 2001. The deficit it alleged existed included a $1.3 billion "forecast allowance" (fudge factor) for 2003-04 that turned out to be pure fiction, and $1.5 billion of Campbell's tax cuts.

Since Campbell's reckless first 90 days, British Columbians have learned that tax cuts do not pay for themselves. Investment in business machinery and equipment is down, and despite inflation and population growth, personal income tax revenues remain $886 million lower. Where did the Campbell government find the money to report a record surplus? Total revenue for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2005, is estimated to be $2.6 billion higher than for the year ending March 31, 2001. Most of the difference, 69.5%, comes from transfers from the federal government - $783 million more for health and social transfers, $980 million more for equalization and $68 million more from other federal transfers. Other sources account for more than 100% of the increase in revenue because they also have to make up for the losses due to the high income and corporate tax cuts. $513 million of the increase, 19.5%, is from higher MSP premiums; $392 million, 14.9%, is due to higher tuition fees, and $280 million, 10.6%, is due to higher gambling revenues (BC Lotteries). ICBC contributed $216 million more in higher profits. Compared to the largess of the federal government and the various tax hikes, the windfall from natural resources is relatively small - $170 million more due to natural gas royalties. Thanks to higher taxes, tobacco contributed $216 million more and fuel taxes contributed $176 million more. The tax cuts did not pay for themselves, but grants from the federal government, higher regressive taxes and natural resource revenues not only offset loses from the tax cuts but accounted for $2.6 billion more in revenue. Watch Campbell try to spin that as good management.

(The data for this article, for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2001, come from Appendix A.7 to the 2004 budget and the data for estimates for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2005, come from Appendix A.3 to the Second Quarterly Financial Report for 2004-05. (pdf) The figures can be updated when the Minister of Finance releases the Third Quarterly Report for 2004 together with the budget for 2005-06.)