December 2, 2005

Close Races

The Conservatives have a problem in BC. Their popular percentage distorts the number of seats they can win because their vote is highly concentrated; in other words, they win by a lot where they win. In June 2004 they won four seats by a clear majority, and another nine seats by more than 40%. Sampling public opinion in those 13 seats distorts reality since the election outcome will be determined in BC's 23 other ridings.

The table shown below uses data from Elections Canada; it gives the number of valid votes for each of the three major parties for the June 2004 federal election. The colour coding in the cells indicates where a party appears to be competitive, based on the results of the last election. Contrary to the customary Liberal refrain that urges New Democrats to vote Liberal to stop the "evil" Conservatives, the numbers show that it is the Liberals who are the "spoilers" in most cases, helping a Conservative defeat a New Democrat while the Liberal finishes third. The evidence is clear for Dewdney—Alouette, Southern Interior, and Vancouver Island North. Based on finish position there is also an argument that the Liberals were the spoilers and helped elect Conservatives in the three-way race in New Westminster—Coquitlam. Surrey North and Fleetwood—Port Kells are special cases. In Surrey North Chuck Cadman broke the rule and won as an independent with a substantial majority; it's now anyone's race, although the NDP's Penny Priddy might have an advantage since the NDP once held that riding. Fleetwood-Port Kells would seem to be Conservative turf but the controversy over Gurmant Grewal might affect Nina Grewal, the incumbent, throwing the race open to anyone. The chart indicates six three-way races (two where the NDP hold the seat) and eight two-way races (one where the NDP hold the seat). That means the NDP has the most potential going into the election; it won five seats 2004 and is competitive in fifteen. Some would argue that despite the numbers, personalities matter, and the NDP could be competitive in Vancouver Centre.

When there is more time between elections, many more factors determine the outcome: the record of the government, the position of the parties and changing demographics (there are a lot of new voters over the course of four years, and many people move). With only 18 months since the last election it is more like a re-match of the last contest which makes analysis of the 2004 results more relevant than usual. The colours in the table suggest that Jack Layton is probably the leader who will spend the most time in BC.

June 2004 Election Results
	Lib	Cons	NDP
Abbotsford	19.9%	61.4%	13.6%
Burnaby—Douglas	32.5%	27.6%	34.6%
Burnaby—New Westminster	32.9%	28.3%	33.7%
Cariboo—Prince George	19.9%	46.7%	26.5%
Chilliwack—Fraser Canyon	18.4%	53.7%	20.6%
Delta—Richmond East	33.2%	45.6%	14.6%
Dewdney—Alouette	21.9%	38.5%	32.7%
Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca	35.3%	24.2%	30.6%
Fleetwood—Port Kells	29.5%	35.8%	28.0%
Kamloops—Thompson	28.3%	40.4%	26.2%
Kelowna	26.5%	48.0%	16.8%
Kootenay—Columbia	17.9%	52.0%	23.8%
Langley	24.7%	47.7%	16.8%
Nanaimo—Alberni	19.9%	39.1%	32.3%
Nanaimo—Cowichan	16.0%	32.8%	43.7%
Newton—North Delta	31.6%	32.8%	29.2%
New Westminster—Coquitlam	27.4%	32.9%	32.6%
North Okanagan—Shuswap	22.5%	46.4%	24.2%
North Vancouver	40.0%	36.4%	15.9%
Okanagan—Coquihalla	23.0%	49.8%	19.5%
Port Moody—Westwood—Port Coquitlam	27.3%	40.9%	26.4%
Prince George—Peace River	13.8%	58.7%	20.7%
Richmond	44.5%	35.3%	15.0%
Saanich—Gulf Islands	26.8%	34.6%	21.6%
Skeena—Bulkley Valley	21.6%	33.7%	37.1%
Southern Interior	18.0%	36.6%	35.1%
South Surrey—White Rock—Cloverdale	36.8%	42.7%	14.4%
Surrey North	15.7%	12.6%	24.1%
Vancouver Centre	40.3%	19.2%	32.3%
Vancouver East	25.9%	10.0%	56.5%
Vancouver Island North	21.5%	35.4%	34.5%
Vancouver Kingsway	40.4%	16.5%	37.3%
Vancouver Quadra	52.4%	26.3%	15.0%
Vancouver South	44.5%	25.5%	24.6%
Victoria	35.0%	21.8%	31.1%
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast	32.5%	35.3%	21.7%