May 18, 2005

Early Election Results

It may be weeks before the final seat count is known since recounts will be necessary in several constituencies where the leading candidate finished with a plurality of less than 100 votes; in Cariboo South with 100% of the polls in, the NDP was just one vote ahead of the Liberal. As midnight neared on election night it appeared that Carole James and her New Democrats won 32 seats, far exceeding even the most optimistic expectations. When all the votes are counted it looks like the popular vote will have the parties only 5% apart, 46% Liberal, 41% NDP and 9% Green. That means that the Mustel Group won bragging rights as the most accurate polling firm.

However the final seat count works out the next legislature will be very different. A majority of British Columbians voted against the Campbell government; the Liberals lost over a third of the seats they enjoyed when the legislature was dissolved.

The first thing Carole James said on election night, before congratulating Gordon Campbell on his victory, was to thank all British Columbians for voting and to thank over 400 candidates from all parties who ran in the election. By sharp contrast Campbell could not find the good grace to acknowledge that voters sent him a message. In the media scrum that followed his remarks he was repeatedly asked if he would change his style as a result of the message sent by voters; he reacted as if he didn't understand the question.

Campbell won the election but lost the campaign. His seat count appears to be at the low end of what the Liberals expected. Next to Carole James, he was the best thing the NDP had when it came to mobilizing public opinion for change. If he continues to be a lightening rod over the next two years, the Liberals will likely be looking for a new leader before the next election.

On election night 2001 Campbell declared that there was no Official Opposition. He appears to have learned little by way of good grace over the last four years. Perhaps he'll take time for sober reflection in the days ahead and commit to changing his style and making British Columbia work for everyone.