June 2, 2005

Vancouver-Burrard and Caucus Politics

Who is the winner in Vancouver-Burrard? After the "final count" BC Liberal Lorne Mayencourt emerged 18 votes ahead of the NDP's Tim Stevenson. The close race triggers an automatic judicial recount. It could switch either way when that is done, but it would be unusual for a judicial recount to change the outcome. So what difference does the close race mean?

It had to be tough for Stevenson who would have already participated in two or three NDP caucus meetings in preparation for the next legislative session. However, backed by Vancouver Mayor Larry Campbell, Stevenson remains a city counselor who could win another term in the November municipal election.

In the greater scheme of provincial politics it would not appear that changing the outcome from 34-45 to 33-46 means much, but consider the personalities. Stevenson went public against Glen Clark when his government was expanding gambling only to end up casting a deciding vote as a city councilor to allow slots in Vancouver. Mayencourt is infamous for his "safe streets" legislation which rewards beggars with $85 tickets. His "incident" with a street person is still in the hands of a special prosecutor. Imagine Mayencourt in the same caucus with Wally Oppal. It could do more damage to the Campbell Liberals to have Mayencourt in caucus than it would do to have Stevenson in opposition.

If, after a mandatory judicial recount Mayencourt remains the victor, the balance in the legislature will be 33-46. If Campbell continues with a cabinet of 28, after appointing the Speaker (nominally there's an "election"), the government backbench would number only 16. That could be difficult as the 16 may consider themselves as well or better qualified as the 28. From the backbench, Mayencourt might challenge the new Attorney General's views on civil liberties. Tensions between members of a smaller caucus, and conflicting personalities, are a much larger problem than anything Campbell experienced when he enjoyed a majority of 77-2.