After the last election, and before the Campbell government was sworn in on June 5, 2001, Gordon Campbell appointed the "Fiscal Review Panel". The Panel observed "British Columbia is a Canadian leader in public sector financial reporting. We found that the province's accounting policies and practices provide a high overall level of financial disclosure and accountability." You wouldn't know it from the Campbell song-sheet, but his hand picked panel praised former NDP governments for their accounting policies. When Finance Minister Collin Hansen tables his budget on February 15th, those policies will make the numbers credible so debate can focus on policy differences rather than on the credibility of the figures.

The Fiscal Review Panel's 2001 report also said: "Currently British Columbia's taxpayer-supported debt as a proportion of GDP and on a per capita basis is relatively low, second to Alberta." When crown corporations are included, the Campbell government increased the debt by $3.24 billion between March 31, 2001 (the last fiscal yearend under the NDP), and March 31, 2004. Excluding crowns, taxpayer-supported debt increased by $5.1 billion between March 31, 2001, and March 31, 2004. Thanks to a windfall due to federal transfer payments, part of that debt will be paid down this year, but the first term Campbell record will remain one of increased debt.

The Fiscal Review Panel wrote: "Based on recent experience in other Canadian provinces, we are concerned that cost cutting in government often comes at the expense of those groups in our society that can least afford it or by lowering standards designed to protect the environment and public health and safety. We do not believe this should be or has to be the case in British Columbia." The Campbell government did not follow that advice. Programs were cut 30-40% including legal aid, protection of children, community living, conservation officers, the geological survey, forest offices and dozens of other services.

The Fiscal Review Panel made one very big mistake. Its 2001 projection of revenue for fiscal year 2003-04 was off by $1.886 billion; it also included an unnecessary $1.5 billion "forecast allowance". The Panel used those figures to claim that BC had a $3.8 billion structural deficit; however, with the help of the audited Public Accounts for 2003-04, it is clear that BC did not have a structural deficit.

BC's new Finance Minister tipped his hand on Tuesday's budget during the January 26, 2005, staged cabinet meeting. Hansen used part of his presentation to bad mouth the former government and repeat false claims about its fiscal and economic record. Expect that to be the pattern throughout the election campaign. Economists measure real GDP in constant dollars so as to separate growth from mere inflation. In 1991 BC's GDP in 1997 dollars was $95.8 billion; in 2000 it was $125.1 billion; that's an average annual increase of 3.0%. In 2001 it was $126.2 billion; in 2003 it was $133.6 billion; that's an average annual increase of 2.9%. In the "New Era" the economy has yet to grow as well as the average annual rate in the 1990s. Statistics Canada will not release its preliminary estimate of GDP by province for 2004 until the last week of April 2005, two weeks before the election. Its preliminary estimate will be revised in November 2005. That leaves a lot of room for government-friendly economists and think tanks to provide generous estimates that cannot be tested.

In 1991 BC had employment of 1.5726 million; it was 1.9491 million in 2000; that's an average annual increase of 2.4%. In 2001 BC employment was 1.9221; it was 2.0599 in 2004; that's an average annual increase of 2.3%. Whether you look at GDP or employment, the record in Campbell's New Era is not as good as the record in the 1990s.

For the fiscal year that ended March 31, 2001, the last full year for the NDP, government revenue was $29.98 billion; it is projected to be $32.62 billion for the year ending March 31, 2005. The increase of $2.64 billion hides the fact that revenue from personal income tax is still $883 million lower. Total revenue increased from a variety of sources to make up for the failure of tax cuts to pay for themselves. The biggest source of new revenue for the provincial government has been "transfers" from the federal government; over the four year period, they are up by $1.83 billion. Post secondary tuition is up by $392 million, an increase of 89%; MSP premiums are up by $513 million, an increase of 57%, and revenue from gambling is up by $280 million, an increase of 50%. The change on the revenue side has nothing to do with tax cuts paying for themselves and everything to do with the combination of more money from Ottawa and the shift to regressive taxes.

In January's staged cabinet meeting Hansen said: "The budget, when it comes down on February 15, will be a balance of three things. It will be tax reduction to make sure that we stay competitive but tax reduction, as well, to make sure that those with low incomes have a better chance of keeping more money in their pockets. We are looking at program spending that will make a difference in people's lives - carefully planned program spending like the kinds of initiatives that Wendy was talking about earlier today. We will also see debt reduction in the budget." In June 2001 the Campbell government implemented tax cuts that saw those with incomes over $250,000 per year receive an average tax cut of over $20,000. Taxation statistics from Revenue Canada for the years 2000 and 2002 show that total income taxes paid by those with over $250,000 in income dropped by over $200 million. That is more than the total 2002 provincial income tax bill for the 1.6 million tax British Columbians who reported income under $25,000. In 2002, 54% of BC taxpayers reported income under $25,000; just 11,000, less than 4 tenths of one percent, reported income over $250,000 yet their reduction exceeded the total amount paid by more than half of all others who filed income tax returns. Just think of what the government could have done four years ago if the highest income category had received a 10% tax cut and the remaining $120 million had been applied to those with low incomes that Hansen now claims deserve help. A few crumbs may spill off the table on the eve of the election, but everyone knows who ate the loaf over the past four years.