Just days after the government appeared to back down on its plan to kick thousands off welfare by being the first province in Canada to impose arbitrary time limits; it looks like balancing the budget will be at the cost of the poor.

Help for people the Ministry of Human Resources deems capable of working is called "temporary assistance". The temporary assistance budget is cut by $79.4 million (17.2%) in 2004-05. The Ministry's service plan indicates further cuts to temporary assistance of $8.5 million in 2005-06 and $10.7 million in 2006-07. In other words, 80% of the cuts planned for temporary assistance are to be made in the 12 months starting April 1, 2004. Budget documents (page 23) said "Since 2001/02, the expected-to-work caseload has fallen from 84,114 to 33,140 in 2003/04, a decline of 50,974 or 61 per cent. Over the next three years, this caseload is forecast to decline to 20,200, a further decrease of 12,940 or 39 per cent." A topic box in the budget documents elaborated on the expected decline and said "This caseload is expected to continue to decline at a modest rate over the next three years." There is nothing moderate about planning to have 80% of the three year decline occur in the first year! If government's figure of a decline of 12,940 is correct, it means that 10,352 will be kicked off welfare before March 31, 2005. Anything less would mean the ministry would fail to achieve its budget target, and the overall balanced budget could be in jeopardy.

Supplementary assistance includes "health assistance, dental care, emergency social services, bus passes, emergency shelters, travel assistance and user fees for continuing care and alcohol and drug facilities." The budget for supplementary assistance is cut by $31 million in 2004-05. Most people thought the government learned its lesson when it had to back off from cutting the bus pass program after it first took power. It looks like the plan is to have more people show up at hospital emergency rooms with no MSP coverage - a violation of the universality provisions of the Canada Health Act. Government needs to explain whether "saving" $31 million in supplementary assistance depends on kicking over 10,000 people off the roles for temporary assistance, and, if not, what do the cuts depend on?