Post Secondary TV Ads

September 6, 2004

Misleading Government Ads

The Campbell government is not going to win any awards for truth in advertising. Its expensive BC's "best place" series makes the false claim that the addition of 25,000 post secondary spaces by 2010 is the "largest expansion in 40 years". You will not find any historical data on the actual number of post secondary spaces on the government's website, but Statistics Canada offers data by province on university and college enrollment. The most recent data it offers for college enrollment is for the school year 1998-1999. During the four year period beginning with school year 1994-1995 and ending with school year 1998-99, college enrollment in BC of full time students increased by 4,327, part time students increased by 4,644. During that same four year period university enrollment in BC of full time students increased by 6,345, part time students by 1,025. That is a total gain of 16,341 positions in just four years. According to the service plan for the Ministry of Advanced Education, BC had 154,991 full time equivalent post secondary positions in the year ended March 31, 2002. The plan is to increase the number of positions to 168,265 over the four years ending March 31, 2006. As shown by the data from Statistics Canada, you don't have to go back 40 years to find periods that had higher rates of growth than the Campbell government's planned increase of 13,274 spaces over four years.

Over the Labour Day weekend, the Campbell government extended its "best place" campaign with full page newspaper ads containing claims about job growth and economic performance. According to the ad "B.C. is leading the country in job growth with over 169,000 jobs created since December 2001." That figure uses Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey which includes self employment as well as unpaid family work. Even if that concept of "job" is used, the gain drops by 60,000 to 109,100 if measured since the start of the New Era in May 2001 rather than since the low point of December 2001. More importantly, when paid employment is examined rather than the definition that includes unpaid work, the job gain since December 2001 falls to 81,000 and BC ranks below average in terms of job growth. Over the last 30 months paid employment grew by 5.7% in Canada, 5.1% in BC. That's not leading.

The Campbell government's Labour Day ad also claimed that BC has the highest proportion of employees earning $16 or more an hour. That claim is based on a table available in a CD-ROM published by Statistics Canada titled "Labour Force Historical Review". You cannot find those data on the Statistics Canada website. According to that table of hourly wage distributions, 701,500 British Columbians (43%) earned less than $16 per hour and 10,300 (1% of the total) were paid less than $6 per hour. Even in the New Era of "Six Bucks Sucks" it is illegal to pay less than $6 per hour. Perhaps the ad, and the July 6th news release from Labour Minister Graham Bruce, are based on unreliable, usually unpublished, data. The data that are regularly available on the Statistics Canada website show that the average hourly wage in Canada as of July 2004 was $18.24 (up 2.6% from 2003); in Ontario it was $19.17 (up 2.8%); in BC it was $18.63 (down 1.3%). BC's lead over the Canadian average is entirely due to union jobs. In July 2004, the average hourly wage for non-union jobs in Canada was $16.77, in BC $16.74. For union jobs, in Canada the average was $21.56, in BC $22.42. Don't hold your breath waiting for the Campbell government to say anything about the benefits of joining a union.

Rather than running misleading ads at taxpayer expense, the Campbell government should simply try to do better. BC is the best place to live, but BC's government has no claim as best. There is a lot of room for improvement.

August 31, 2004

Post Secondary TV Ads

"This is the best place on earth to live …" It is hard to miss the saturation advertising campaign that delivers that message, but for those who have it is available on a government's website. Despite the Campbell government, most British Columbians would agree that they'd never want to live anywhere else. Don't expect the government to disclose how much its latest ad campaign costs. Despite its promise to be open and transparent, details of advertising campaigns, including costs, are closely guarded secrets.

The current feel good campaign is weakly justified by surrounding its opening and closing message with a pitch on the addition of 25,000 post secondary positions by 2010. While the advertising probably has more to do with an attempt to improve the BC Liberal party's position in the polls, it is probably a good idea to plan for the next six years. Unfortunately, some important details, including the cost and who will pay, are missing from the plan for post secondary expansion.

The provincial government doesn't make its financial projections available for more than a two year forecast. The service plan for the Ministry of Advanced Education indicates that as of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2002, there were 154,991 full time equivalent spaces in BC's post secondary system (including entry level trades training but excluding apprenticeship). An increase of 25,000 by 2010 is an increase of 16% over 8 years. The service plan shows intended growth in the number of spaces of a little over 2% per year. The Ministry's budget for educational institutions and organizations was $1.383 billion for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2002. Its plan calls for it to rise to $1.458 in the year ending March 31, 2007. That is an increase of 5.4% over 5 years. The number of full time equivalent spaces is supposed to reach 172,659 by March 31, 2007, an increase of 11.4% over 5 years. How can capacity increase by twice as much as provincial funding for educational institutions and organizations? The answer, of course, is increases in tuition. Not only does the Campbell government expect tuition to cover a larger portion of post secondary operating costs, but it also calls for tuition to make up the shortfall in financing for its expansion plans. The expensive government TV ads don't mention that little detail.

As a result of the inclusion of the SUCH sector (schools, universities, colleges and health authorities) in the government's financial statements, tuition is now counted as government revenue and shown as a separate line in an appendix to the budget. Post secondary fees are expected to increase from $452 million in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2002, to $837 million in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2007, an increase of over 85% over 5 years. Maybe that's where the money is coming from to pay for the slick ads that ignore tuition hikes.