The largest opinion poll yet in the election campaign was released on June 2nd by Leger Marketing. The company, a member of the Gallop organization, describes itself as "the best-known polling and market research company in Canada". Between May 27th and May 31st, it sampled 3,107 Canadians of which 1,100 were in Quebec. For BC it reported 32% support for the Conservatives, 29% support for the Liberals and 28% support for the NDP. No other province has such a tight three way race.

On the question of what issues influence how people may vote, health led the list with 37% followed by employment and the economy at 19%, and investment in education at 11%. Nothing else made it into the double digits. It is difficult to reconcile those issues with growing support for the Conservatives who have emphasized crime, the military and tax cuts. It could be that people are less than forthright when asked what issues influence their vote, or it could be that they aren't paying enough attention to notice promises for things like aircraft carriers. Many people are probably suffering information overload, a state of mind that will get worse as the media becomes bored and turns to trivia and human interest stories on the fringe of the campaign.

Polls probably receive a lot of attention because they are much easier to digest than are the subtle differences between the parties on some policies. There are some areas where the differences are not so subtle. The Liberals have to be held accountable for the waste and scandals, and it looks like the public has understood that message. The Conservatives seem to be hiding their agenda. Their website condenses their positions on a dozen or so policy issues to no more than a couple of sentences per topic. Harper has been thrown off his agenda with the need to respond to his own candidates on issues like abortion and bilingualism. Since the Conservatives have yet to hold a policy convention, voters may have suspicions that the reactionary side of the old Reform - Alliance types will emerge in a Harper government. Disgust with the Liberals seems to be enough to keep those concerns at bay in Ontario where the Leger poll has the Conservatives in striking distance with 37% compared to the Liberals 39%.

Anyone familiar with differences in voting patterns within a constituency, let alone between constituencies, knows that very detailed information is necessary in order to predict the number of seats any party might win. The parties are already well into their canvassing which gives them better information than any poll. Don't expect to see any party disclose what it is learning on the phones and doorsteps. In BC New Democrats are turning out to work in campaigns in numbers that haven't been seen since 1991. That is good news for Jack Layton, and bad news for Gordon Campbell. The election organization that fell apart in 2001 is being well oiled before it is called on for the next provincial election. It is ironic that the guy who led the NDP to a near wipeout, is now a "star" for Paul Martin. Maybe he'll bring the same kind of results to his new friends.