James as Most Preferred for Premier

Some Liberals and a few media pundits are emphasizing the question in the recent Ipsos-Reid poll that asked who would make the best Premier, but a few crucial details have been neglected. Only 699 of the 800 adult British Columbians polled answered that question; 48% said Gordon Campbell, 35% said Carole James, and 18% said Adriane Carr. The detailed results show that Campbell's support is concentrated in families with over $60,000 in income. Among families with incomes over $60,000, 56% said Campbell, 29% said James, and 15% said Carr. Among families with less than $30,000 income 39% said Campbell, 41% said James, and 20% said Carr. Among families with incomes over $30,000 and less than $60,000, 39% said Campbell, 42% said James, and 19% said Carr. A list of the median family incomes for each of the 79 constituencies would be a useful tool for identifying Campbell's strongest ridings. When the question of party preference is asked, the Liberals also do best with those having family incomes over $60,000; 50% Liberal, 37% NDP, 9% Green. The NDP has 52% to the Liberal's 31% for those with family incomes under $30,000, and the NDP has 46% to the Liberal's 39% for the $30,000 to $60,000 income group.

While median family incomes aren't available by constituency, thanks to very good work by BC Stats, comprehensive census profiles, including average family income as of year 2000, are available for every constituency. Average isn't quite as useful as median since, by definition, half of all families have incomes below the median, but we don't know exactly how many have incomes below the average. Median family income in British Columbia in 2000 was $54,840; average family income was $64,821. That means that over 50% of families have incomes below the average.

Average family incomes by constituency range from a high of $123,087 in Vancouver-Quilchena to a low of $42,874 in Vancouver-Mount Pleasant. In Surrey-Panorama Ridge, where the BC Liberals took a beating in the by-election, average family income in 2000 was 60,448. Of BC's 79 constituencies, 10 have average family incomes over $80,000, 10 have average family incomes over $70,000, but less than $80,000, 8 have average family incomes over $65,000 but less than $70,000, 19 have average family incomes over $60,000 but less than $65,000, and 32 have average family incomes less than $60,000. There may be at least 40 constituencies in BC, the number needed to form government, where a majority of people believe that Carole James would be the best Premier. On May 17, 2005, we'll find out.

No matter how you look at the polling data, the Campbell Liberals and NDP are in a close race; Green supporters may determine whether Campbell gets a second term in power.

Poll: Campbell Government Doesn't Deserve Re-Election

"Do you think the BC Liberals deserve to be re-elected based on their performance since the election?" Ipsos-Reid put that, and other questions, to a random sample of 800 adult British Columbians between November 24th to 30th. The results are considered accurate to within ±3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Whether well off or not, university education or not, union or not, young or old, male or female, Lower Mainlander or Northerner, all demographic groups said NO! Overall, 57% said no; among the various breakout groups (for which the margin of error is larger), the percentage saying no ranged from a low of 49% in non-union households (with 48% saying yes, and 3% undecided) to a high of 76% in union households; 62% of women and 51% of men said no. Despite that, BC has a real horserace, and for the first time since 1983, a sitting Premier who occupied the office for a full first term could win a second term.

The reason the Campbell government might be re-elected, even though most British Columbians say it doesn't deserve it, is that a few voters will hold their nose and vote BC Liberal anyway; more significantly, some may vote Green even though that party stands virtually no chance of electing anyone. Voting for a party that stands no chance of winning is not, as some proponents of STV argue, a "wasted vote". New Democrats run in West Vancouver knowing that the chance of winning is slim and none, but their candidacy gives supporters an opportunity to register their opinion. While no vote is wasted, votes placed without full consideration of the alternatives can produce very undesirable consequences. In this case, they can re-elect a government that most feel doesn't deserve it. When it comes to party preferences, Ipsos-Reid found that if an election were held now, 44% support the Liberals, 41% support the NDP, 12% support the Greens and only 3% support all other parties. (That is when the 4% who are undecided and the 2% who wouldn't vote or who would spoil their ballot are factored out.)

At their November 9th breakfast briefing, Ipsos-Reid's Kyle Braid reported that the Liberal support is relatively solid compared to the NDP's. He produced a slide that showed that 25% of NDP supporters might change their mind and vote Green; he also said that 35% of the Greens might change their mind and vote NDP. It is possible for the NDP to defeat Gordon Campbell's Liberals but to do that it is essential that it hold on to its "soft" supporters and to win the support of Greens who want to stop Campbell. Not all Greens are in that camp; Braid reported that 28% of Green supporters might change their mind and vote BC Liberal. With only 4% of potential voters saying that they are undecided, it looks like the NDP and the BC Liberals will both be attempting to appeal to Green supporters. Those voters need to seriously reflect not only on their party preference, but on what government they want, since their vote will probably help determine the government even though it can't elect their favorite candidate.