A cabinet shuffle in an atmosphere of crisis, two weeks prior to the legislature opening with the Speech from the Throne, is bad news for Premier Campbell. Last year he had to beg for forgiveness as a result of his behaviour in Hawaii; this year his ties to Doug Walls and his double standard with respect to political staff working for Paul Martin are creating even greater tensions. Campbell is feeling so much heat that presidents of BC Liberal riding associations were phoned and asked to get supporters out to cheer him in the weekend's Chinese New Year's parade, apparently worried that those otherwise present wouldn't be so inclined. Cabinet shuffles create tensions within the government caucus; those who get dumped from cabinet are unhappy but they are outnumbered by angry backbenchers who fail to get the nod to move into a Minister's office.

Allowing for the Speaker, Claude Richmond, Tony Bhullar who sits out of caucus and Paul Nettleton who quit the Campbell caucus, there are 74 eligible BC Liberals and only 28 cabinet positions; notwithstanding that being the largest cabinet in BC history, it produces a back bench numbering an overwhelming 46. In the first shuffle since taking office, Campbell moved 11, fired 6 from cabinet and promoted 6 from the backbench leaving 40 to linger on the backbench and muse as to why they were ignored. Were they ignored because they don't stand a chance of winning again, or where they ignored because they don't have what it takes to function at a cabinet level?

Joining Gordon Hogg on the backbench are former cabinet ministers Judith Reid, Greg Halsey-Brandt, and former ministers of state Ted Nebbling, Lynn Stephens and Katherine Whittred. Some of those who were fired will probably not run again, those who had considered another run may now re-think that decision. Of the six who were promoted from the backbench, four went to minister of state positions, Ida Chong, Pat Bell, Roger Harris, and Susan Brice. The big winners are Tom Christensen, the new Minister of Education, and John Les, the new Minister of Small Business and Economic Development - apparently the new name for what was the former Ministry of Competition, Science and Enterprise. The biggest loser may not be Gordon Hogg whose resignation finally forced Campbell to get on with his long delayed cabinet shuffle, but Pat Bell who will no longer have the honour of sitting beside NDP House Leader, Joy MacPhail.

Most of the promotions appear to be related to helping MLAs who are in ridings where the New Democrats are getting close in the public opinion polls. Rumour had it that Chong and Harris were rivals with respect to who would get the nod from the Victoria area; Campbell solved the problem by giving minister of state positions to both while ignoring poor Jeff Bray who will be facing NDP Leader Carole James in the 2005 election. When considering the scandal plagued government, a promotion to the front bench may not be particularly helpful when it comes to increasing chances for re-election.

The surprising sideways shuffles put Christy Clark in as Minister of Children and Family Development, and Stan Hagen in as Minister of Human Resources. That can be viewed as putting trusted ministers in portfolios that need work, or it can be viewed as tossing an anchor to the hapless ministers.

Clark will need to display more ability to manage and to work with people than she demonstrated in her former portfolio. In opposition, she was one of the rat pack that used to viciously attack NDP Ministers who occupied her new position. In those days, the attacks were usually based on the tragic death of a child in care of the Ministry, although the number of deaths declined steadily during the 90s only to increase last year. One of the first things the Campbell government did was to tighten confidentiality rules, fire the Children's Commissioner and fire the Advocate for Children and Youth so as to protect themselves from the kind of criticism they made routine. Unfortunately for Clark, the scandal that currently rocks the Ministry is not captured by gag techniques. Special deals for friends and insiders is something everyone understands; it is something Campbell said would not happen in his New Era. Clark cannot proceed with the cuts planned by Hogg without creating more chaos, more pain and real suffering. If she doesn't proceed, Collins' may have to postpone the date for his balanced budget; no matter what she does the links between Doug Walls and the Premier will haunt the government.

Hagen needs to be reminded immediately that his predecessor, Murray Coell, promised to release numbers this week on how many people will be kicked off welfare on April 1st when BC becomes the first province in Canada to arbitrarily base eligibility on time limits. Hagen needs to honour that promise and to act immediately to mitigate the consequences of that cruel policy. A good start would be to announce that they will not proceed with it.

New policies and new attitudes that show concern for people must quickly follow the cabinet changes if British Columbians are to be convinced that we don't simply have new faces implementing old policies.