While sensible people have hit the beaches and barbecues, dozens of potential candidates for the next provincial election are engaged in struggles to win nominations. Even Liberals will admit that Carole James' New Democrats are likely to win between 20 and 30 seats. Optimists think that she could pull off a political miracle and return the NDP to power after one short term in political purgatory; she has one of the best organizers the party could ever hope for in the form of Gordon Campbell.

The prospect of winning at least 20 seats means that there is an opportunity rarely seen for those who want to get involved in public life. Nomination contests with three to five hopefuls will not be unusual in the months ahead. Desperate for some issue they can use to attack James, Liberals and their apologists have begun to discuss just how new the James' New Democrats may be. There are up to a dozen former MLAs who have either announced or are rumoured to be seeking nominations. The effort by "experienced hands" to make a come back is already being used to suggest that James may be vulnerable to attacks on the former government that could draw attention away from her focus on the years ahead. Some former MLAs probably will succeed in winning nominations, but there are three major steps to success in politics: 1) wining a nomination, 2) winning the election, and 3) being appointed by the leader to a position that matters. It is unlikely that very many former MLAs will successfully jump over all three hurdles. In the worst possible scenario for New Democrats, an opposition caucus of just 20 members, less than half would be former MLAs. If James succeeds in electing 40 or more to form a government, former MLAs would be less than a quarter of the new caucus and in all likelihood far less than that.

It takes more than a few voices from the past for critics of James to credibly suggest that the NDP has not succeeded in renewing itself. The Campbell Liberals will not succeed in running against the former government. They will have to account for what they have done and offer a credible vision for the next term. That will be particularly difficult when what they have done is compared to what they promised before the last election. The 2005 election may boil down to who you can trust. The advantage would appear to go to James.