December
21, 2004
BC
Progress Board's 4th Annual Report
With
the attention of political pundits focused on the resignation
of Garry Collins, not to mention Christmas shopping, it
is not surprising that the fourth annual report from the
BC Progress Board, released December 15th, went largely
unnoticed. Not many British Columbians are likely to wade
through the 275 pages of mind numbing statistics found in
its two volumes, but the two
news releases that accompanied the report are worth
a glance. According to the Board's chair, David Black, who
is also President of Victoria-based Black Press Ltd., "BC
is making progress, but the task of reaching and maintaining
a leadership position across all areas of our measurement
framework - economy, innovation, education, environment,
health and social condition - is not complete and arguably
never will be." (emphasis added)
The
idea behind $790 million in corporate tax cuts within two
months of Campbell being sworn into office, if there was
one beyond paying off campaign donors, was to encourage
investment. The Progress Board reported that "BC continued
to be a middling performer within Canada on business investment
(6th, 2003) and productivity (6th, 2003), while its export
performance was weak (8th, 2003)." No doubt the government
will claim that 2004 will tell a different story once the
figures are in. Preliminary figures for 2004 aren't released
by Statistics Canada until late April 2005; they are revised
in November 2005. There are some preliminary indicators
for investment in buildings, but there are no such indicators
for the all important figures on investment in machinery
and equipment. That is the investment that raises productivity;
it fell by 3.0% in 2003 following a 4.3% decline in 2002.
The tax cuts were supposed to produce the opposite effect.
For
decades British Columbians referred to the portion of the
province beyond Hope as "the Interior". In one
of his not very successful gambits, Campbell tried to brand
the Interior the "Heartlands", which gave rise
to many jokes, but no general adoption of the term. The
Progress Board has invented yet another moniker, in referring
to the Interior as "Regional BC". Volume 2 of
the Board's report focuses on the regions of BC, and notes
that: "Personal and property crime rates dropped every
year between 1994 and 2000 in Regional BC, but increased
between 2001 and 2003."
The
Progress Board summed up volume 2 by saying:
"Overall,
BC's largest urban population centres (Greater Vancouver
and Victoria) outperform the province's regions on 8 of
10 comparable indicators covering the economy, innovation
and education based on the most recent full year data, usually
for 2003. The indicators include: employment rate (2003),
taxfiler's income (2001), housing starts (2003), non-residential
building permits (2003), secondary school graduation (2003),
university completion (2003), science and engineers employed
(2003), and net new business formation (2003). Regional
BC performs better than the province's urban areas on manufacturing
shipments (2002) and retail sales (2003)."
It could
have added that "Regional BC" was particularly
hard hit by the Campbell government's cuts. Layoffs and
closures of forestry offices, closed welfare offices, and
courts turned to circuit courts had a bigger impact on Interior
communities than they did in Vancouver and Victoria. Maybe
that is why the latest Ipsos-Reid poll shows the Campbell
government suffering from a significant regional gap, 10
points behind the NDP in the Southern Interior. Some Liberals
believe that the saturation government advertising campaign
might produce a backlash; it must be doubly so in the Interior
where the experience is contrary to the feel-good image
portrayed in the government advertisements.
Thanks
to low interest rates and high prices for resources, wood,
minerals, oil and gas, BC is making some progress. Unfortunately,
the progress has little to do with the policies of the Campbell
government which have harmed many communities, whether defined
by geography or interest.
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