On October 28th, just three days before little goblins say "trick or treat", voters in Surrey-Panorama Ridge will have the opportunity to say "boo" to Gordon Campbell. South of Surrey-Newton, north of Surrey-Cloverdale and east of Delta North, the riding is Campbell's to lose. It is a new riding that was pieced together from neighbouring constituencies in the 1999 redistribution. Before the province elected 77 Campbell Liberals, under the old boundaries, Surrey-Newton went NDP in 1991 and 1996, Delta North went NDP in 1991; the other three adjacent ridings have never elected New Democrats. In 2001, 58.9% of those who voted opted for the Campbell Liberal, Gulzar Cheema. Ranking the 79 constituencies by the percentage which voted for Campbell from Chilliwack-Kent at first with 74.9% to Vancouver-Mount Pleasant last at 33.2%, Surrey-Panorama ranks 38th or just about in the middle of the pack. It takes 40 seats to form a majority government; so it is just on the edge as the kind of riding that must swing if the Campbell government is to fall.

October 28th is not a general election; it is a by-election. That allows disenchanted Liberals the opportunity of voting against the Campbell government so as to send it a message without bringing it down. In the past few weeks government advertising has reached near saturation levels with false claims that BC leads the country in job creation. The bulletin issued by Statistics Canada with the Labour Force Survey on September 10th said "Employment fell by 15,000 in British Columbia … Job losses earlier in the year, along with the decline in August, offset recent gains and leave employment in the province slightly below the level at the end of 2003. In August, the unemployment rate rose 0.4 percentage points to 7.7%." No amount of false advertising is going to fool voters on October 28th. Some Liberals believe that the misuse of taxpayer funded ads is so great that it could produce a backlash.

The Green Party has introduced a wild card into the by-election with the candidacy of its leader, Adriane Carr. In 2001, the Campbell Liberals (Gulzar Cheema) won 9,590 votes, the NDP 3,240, the Greens, 1,437, and Unity 1,123. It is inconceivable that Carr could win the by-election. If she comes no where close, the results may help send a message in the May 17th general election.

The 2001 results make it clear that, short of a significant change by way of new voters, the only way the NDP can win is if a substantial number of those who voted Liberal in 2001 switch to the NDP. That makes the by-election a real test of whether voters in Surrey-Panorama feel betrayed by what Campbell did compared to what they feel he promised. Conveniently, the 2001 promises have been removed from the Liberal website, but voters have long memories.