Some pundits have claimed, that based on the February Mustel Group poll, if an election were held today, Carole James would lead a majority government. It is an enormous jump from one poll to that conclusion. Before anyone gets too excited counting legislative seats, it should be recognized that the BC Liberals will have an enormous financial advantage in the election campaign. The New Democrats have launched a new website and newsletter service that makes it easy to donate online, but their fundraising is unlikely to come close to the amount raised by the BC Liberals from corporations. The focus of the NDP, right now, should be on holding Gordon Campbell accountable.

If the February Mustel Group poll is confirmed by Ipsos-Reid in March, and if those results hold in the months ahead, pressure will intensify on Carole James to provide details of her platform. She should not repeat the mistake of Gordon Campbell. On his first day in office, before he received advice from the financial panel he appointed, he announced tax cuts that went far beyond his campaign promise. In July he dug a deeper hole by announcing $790 million in corporate tax cuts. When disaster after disaster struck later in the year, his options had narrowed. James and the New Democrats will be campaigning to form a government following the May 17, 2005, election. It would not be wise to make announcements today, without the benefit of at least 12 months of additional information. That would be repeating one of Campbell's errors.

In politics you have to worry much more about your friends than your opponents. What James must do is work with supporters and potential supporters to help bring about realistic expectations. British Columbia will not achieve the long term growth that is necessary to finance programs if public policy swerves like a drunk behind the wheel. It will not be possible to catch up in one year, or even in one term, for what has been lost in the New Era. It will take patience to restore services while maintaining fiscal credibility. Stability and competence may not be as jazzy as some would like, but they may be the most important promises James can make. Those who want something more may really be asking for a target that will take the heat off the scandal plagued Campbell government. James must resist giving in to demands to become that target as she demonstrates confident, competent and inclusive leadership.