Under its new chair, regional media mogul David Black, the BC Progress Board appears to be spinning for the Campbell government rather than following in the footsteps of the precedent setting Oregon Progress Board. BC's "Interim Benching Report 2004" was released May 13th; the accompanying news release emphasized "BC's annual rate of real economic growth, expressed on a per person basis, improved to 4th place in Canada (2003) from 8th in 2002." Folks who don't follow the numbers might be misled into thinking that BC improved in 2003.

It is not that BC did better in 2003, in fact economic growth was worse than in 2002, 2.2% compared to 2.4%. BC's rank improved because other provinces declined. In 2002, BC's 2.4% GDP growth fell short of Newfoundland's 15.4%, PEI's 5.7%, Nova Scotia's 4.4%, New Brunswick and Quebec's 4.0%, and Ontario's 3.6%. In 2003, average GDP growth for Canada dropped to 1.7% from 3.3%. BC ranked better because it declined a little less. Being a little better than a bad lot is not necessarily good news.

The BC Progress Board focuses on per capita real GDP while the numbers cited above quote growth for real GDP. BC's population growth fell from 0.9% in 2002 to 0.8% in 2003. The Canadian average declined from 1.1% in 2002 to 0.9% in 2003. Consequently, part of BC's move up in per capita ranking resulted from its lower than average population growth. That is not a good thing.

The BC Progress Board news release also said "BC maintained 3rd place for the level of after-tax income per capita (2003), unchanged from last year's report." That claim comes about a week after the Globe & Mail published an article on BC's personal per capita income falling to fourth place after being passed by Quebec. BC's Finance Minister was quick to say that after tax income is what really counts. He, and the Progress Board, failed to mention that BC finished 8th in terms of growth in after tax income. In 2003 Quebec gained $573 in personal disposable income per person compared to BC's gain of only $241, the national average was $423. If that continues for one more year, BC will fall to fourth place and decline from there. Campbell's tax cuts have failed in every respect. No amount of playing with the numbers will help rescue the Campbell government.