The March Ipsos-Reid poll conducted between March 1st and March 7th showed the NDP at 42% and the BC Liberals at 39%. It was March 8th when Surrey-Whalley MLA Elayne Brenzinger resigned from caucus saying that Campbell's "administrative style has proven itself to be chaotic, haphazard and destructive to British Columbia"; attempts to discredit her revealed the secret expulsion of caucus members. The privatization of BC Rail's "rail port subdivision" wasn't cancelled until March 10th. The loss of 36,200 jobs wasn't made public until March 12th. Had the poll been conducted this week, it might have been even worse for Campbell.

The March poll is likely to provide encouragement for those who are seeking a nomination to run as New Democrats in the May 2005 election. Its impact may be even greater within the ranks of Campbell's caucus and party.

The BC Liberals held a convention in October 2002 and they should hold one in the fall of 2004; however, there is nothing on the party's website about a convention. A Liberal mole says that card carrying members cannot get answers about why a venue has not been chosen and a date set, and that party bureaucrats are busy working on how to avoid the constituency by constituency vote before the convention on whether to conduct a leadership review. It appears that Campbell is running his party the same way he runs his caucus, in secret. He trails his party by 5 points while Carole James leads hers by 5 points. In April the Mustel Group will produce its next poll; Ipsos-Reid's next poll will be in June. If the slow decline in support continues, the pressure will grow for a leadership convention to replace Campbell. Major donors may be reluctant to back a loser.

It may already be too late for Campbell to reverse his decline by changing his policies. Finance Minister Gary Collins said that the cuts are behind them and everything is set for a balanced budget. That is not true. The Ministry of Children and Family Development will suffer a further $70 million in cuts this year. The Ministry of Human Resources will lose $117 million. $35 million more will be taken out of the budget for the Ministry of Public Safety and the Solicitor General. Community, Aboriginal and Women's Services are slashed another $96 million. The Attorney General, the environment and agriculture also have to deal with budget cuts in the year ahead. It will be hard for Campbell to reverse his decline while he is still slashing services. The economy is stalled and even Campbell's own financial reports show that middle and lower income families are being hurt by higher taxes and fees. British Columbians can only hope that he will rise to the challenge and reduce the damage because it is not just Campbell's popularity that is at stake, it is the lives and well being of millions of British Columbians.