February
24, 2004
BC's
Strategic Plan Lowers Economic Targets
The government's
"Strategic Plan" doesn't get the attention it deserves.
Perhaps that is why no one seems to have noticed important
changes in this year's update to the plan. Last
year the first sentence in the cover letter signed by
the Premier said "There are many dedicated people that
work in the public service in British Columbia. This Strategic
Plan is for them." This
year the first sentence in the Premier's letter said "The
following Strategic Plan has been produced for you, the people
of British Columbia." Getting the Premier to recognize
that the Strategic Plan, a requirement of the Budget Transparency
and Accountability Act, is for the people of British Columbia
rather than instructions to the bureaucracy, is a step in
the right direction.
Former
Auditor General George Morfitt deserves credit for measures
in the Act that help to hold government accountable.
The former government acted on Morfitt's advice and included
the legal requirement for government to table "service
plans" for ministries and an overall "Strategic
Plan" for government. The Act states that the
Strategic Plan must "set out the government's priorities"
and "identify specific objectives and expected results".
Isn't that a radical idea? Instead of having tricky wording
in something like the New Era Document, Campbell's book of
campaign promises, the Act requires clear language
and measurable outcomes. That hasn't stopped the Campbell
government from making references to their New Era Document
throughout their service plans and Strategic Plan. It is as
if they resent having to be clear about expected outcomes.
The 2004/05
- 2006/07 Strategic Plan is the third strategic plan prepared
by the Campbell government. Like the two plans before it,
the introduction to the plan says "Renewing our economy
is unquestionably this government's top priority." Many
economists have observed that the government's plan has failed
to "renew" the BC economy. Perhaps that is why a
major change was made in the target for that goal. Last year
the plan said "Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per
capita is a key measure of overall economic activity, expressed
in terms of economic output (new goods and services produced)
per person." Last year's plan set the target for that
measure when it said "The B.C. Progress Board has set
a target for us of 1st or 2nd place in Canada by 2010. To
meet that goal, by 2005/06 we expect to be at a 5th place
rank in Canada in the growth of real GDP per capita, from
the 2001 baseline rank of 10th place." That is a very
specific, measurable target, but it was watered down in this
year's plan when the real GDP per capita measure remained
the same but the target was changed to "Improve upon
the 2001 baseline rank of 10th place growth in Canada."
It looks like when Statistics Canada reports the data for
2003, BC will be in 10th place. Look for next year's plan
to see if they lower the target yet again.
The Strategic
Plan sets out two other measures of economic performance.
Like real GDP per capita, this year's plan lowered the target
for those measures. One of the measures is "Real GDP
per hour worked in the business sector indicates overall efficiency
of our labour efforts." Last year the target for that
measure was "By 2005/06 we expect to be at a 3rd place
rank in Canada in the level of real GDP per worker hour in
the business sector, from the 2001 baseline rank of 5th place."
This year the target was changed to "Improve upon the
2001 baseline rank of 5th place in Canada."
The third
measure of economic performance is "Total amount of gross
fixed business investment as a percentage of provincial GDP."
Last year the target was "By 2005/06 we expect to be
at a 3rd place rank in Canada in the level of business investment,
from the 2001 baseline rank of 5th place." This year
the target was changed to "Improve upon the 2001 baseline
rank of 5th place in Canada." It may be easier to improve
the ranking than to reach a specific ranking by a specific
date, but don't hold your breath that the target doesn't change
again, to something like "improve performance" rather
than "improve ranking", but even that may be too
difficult for the Campbell government to achieve.
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