It is fantastic that the unemployment rate in BC has finally been reduced to 6.8%, the level it was when the Campbell Liberals were elected in May 2001. At a time when the Campbell government is reeling over daily revelations connected to the RCMP raid on the legislature, they need all the good news they can get, not to mention that British Columbians deserve some good news. The bad news is that there are still over 150,000 unemployed.

The good news is not quite as good as Premier Campbell would have you believe. Throughout 2003, the Liberal song-sheet made various claims about the creation of 100,000 jobs. Since Statistics Canada has provided its estimate for employment in December 2003, we know that on a seasonally adjusted basis employment in December 2003 was 76.9 thousand higher than in December 2002. When comparing the same month between two years it may be more appropriate to use unadjusted numbers; they show a gain of 85,000 but still short of the government rhetoric about 100,000 new jobs.

It is not commonly understood that the statistics on employment include every type of employment, including self-employed. Seasonally unadjusted data show that the number of self employed in BC in December 2003 was 398,000 compared to 369,800 in December 2002, a gain of 41,800 (11.7%). The number of jobs where someone worked as a "payroll employee", grew by 56,800 in 2003. (The numbers total more than 85,000 because some people are counted as both self-employed and as payroll employees.) That is far better than the 60,000 loss in payroll employment that occurred between December 2001 and December 2000, after Campbell's government was elected, but it is not quite as good as the 65,000 gain in payroll jobs that occurred between December 2002 and December 2001 - of course, those job gains just offset the loss from the previous year.

The big question in 2004 is whether the job gains reported by Statistics Canada in BC for October and December can continue in the New Year. 70% of the job growth in 2003 occurred in October and December; 49% of the job growth was for the self-employed. Job growth in October was primarily attributed to the public sector, counterintuitive, given the cuts that have been experienced. The leading sector for job gains in December was again the public sector, this time it was what Statistics Canada categorizes as "health care and social assistance". Once again, that is not what most people would expect. It would be hard to find anyone willing to bet that the public sector will continue to lead job growth in 2004 given that the Campbell government announced in February 2003 that it is planning a further $565 million in cuts starting April 1, 2004.

Statistics Canada reported that, seasonally adjusted, there were 151,000 people unemployed in BC (143,800 unadjusted). That is better than the record high of 200,900 reported for September 2003, but not as good as the 144,100 that were unemployed in May 2001. Whichever number one chooses, it helps put in perspective the draconian two year eligibility rule that the Campbell government will implement on April 1, 2004, with the consequence that thousands of people will be kicked off welfare. Despite government's promise to be open, Human Resources Minister Murray Coell has refused to provide basic information on how many people will be kicked off assistance. As of October, the caseload statistics show 29,939 cases of temporary assistance where the recipient is expected to work, in other words, there are almost 5 times more people unemployed than there are people on assistance who are expected to work. Each of those people have 4 other unemployed people who are competing with them for whatever jobs are available. When the Campbell government implements its two year welfare rule, keep those odds in mind.