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March 12, 2004

Record Loss of Jobs

BC lost 36,400 jobs in February according to seasonally adjusted data released by Statistics Canada. On an unadjusted basis, the loss was 24,200. That is the biggest one month job loss for the seasonally adjusted data in almost 30 years (the data only go back to January 1976). The recent data come from the Labour Force Survey. Economists have noted for the past several months that employment measured by Statistics Canada's other survey of employment, Survey of Payroll Employment, Earnings and Hours, has shown a much lower growth rate than employment measured by the Labour Force Survey.

BC Employment May 2001 - Feb 2004Part of the Campbell government's song sheet includes reference to jobs created in the BC economy since December 2001. The reason they pick December 2001 rather than the beginning of their mandate is because that creates a bigger number since jobs were lost in the first six months after the election. On a seasonally adjusted basis, BC's economy gained 66,200 jobs since May 2001, 119,100 since December 2001. On an unadjusted basis, the gain was 14,400 jobs since May 2001, 101,200 since December 2001. The chart to the right shows the ups and downs of changes in total employment using both adjusted and unadjusted data.

The last two months suggest that BC is on a downturn again. That is consistent with other economic indicators which show retail trade grew by less than the rate of inflation in 2003. Exports were down for everything but natural gas, and gas increased in dollar terms primarily because of higher prices. Residential construction appears to be the only bright spot in the BC economy. At least there is some long term employment growth, but the rate is about 1.5% per year, not nearly as high as the Campbell government would have people believe, and lower than the employment growth rate of about 2.1% during the 90s.

 

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