March
12, 2004
Record
Loss of Jobs
BC lost
36,400 jobs in February according to seasonally adjusted data
released by Statistics Canada. On an unadjusted basis, the
loss was 24,200. That is the biggest one month job loss for
the seasonally adjusted data in almost 30 years (the data
only go back to January 1976). The recent data come from the
Labour Force Survey. Economists have noted for the past several
months that employment measured by Statistics Canada's other
survey of employment, Survey of Payroll Employment, Earnings
and Hours, has shown a much lower growth rate than employment
measured by the Labour Force Survey.
Part
of the Campbell government's song sheet includes reference
to jobs created in the BC economy since December 2001. The
reason they pick December 2001 rather than the beginning of
their mandate is because that creates a bigger number since
jobs were lost in the first six months after the election.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, BC's economy gained 66,200
jobs since May 2001, 119,100 since December 2001. On an unadjusted
basis, the gain was 14,400 jobs since May 2001, 101,200 since
December 2001. The chart to the right shows the ups and downs
of changes in total employment using both adjusted and unadjusted
data.
The last
two months suggest that BC is on a downturn again. That is
consistent with other economic indicators which show retail
trade grew by less than the rate of inflation in 2003. Exports
were down for everything but natural gas, and gas increased
in dollar terms primarily because of higher prices. Residential
construction appears to be the only bright spot in the BC
economy. At least there is some long term employment growth,
but the rate is about 1.5% per year, not nearly as high as
the Campbell government would have people believe, and lower
than the employment growth rate of about 2.1% during the 90s.
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