Finance Minister Gary Collins is fond of claiming that BC is enjoying a "broad based" economic recovery. Since December 2003 BC has gained just 8,500 jobs (0.4%) compared to a gain in Canada of 155,700 (1.0%). Three quarters of BC's job gain in the past year has been in construction; that is not "broad based" growth. It now appears that the high-tech sector cannot be counted as part of Collin's claim.

On October 15th Ipsos-Reid issued a news released based on two surveys it did since early June. Between June 1 and 7, 2004, it surveyed 800 British Columbians on a variety of topics, including some of the same questions it later put to industry leaders in the high-tech sector. Between August 16 and September 17, 2004, it surveyed the CEOs of 71 high-tech firms, 26 with 10 or fewer employees, 34 with 11-100 employees, and 11 with more than 100 employees. Ipsos-Reid reports that their sample of 71 CEOs has an error of plus or minus 10.3%, 19 times out of 20.

Ipsos-Reid asked both groups, "A year from now how do you think the BC economy will be doing compared to today?" Among the high-tech CEOs, 62% said it would be doing better, but among the general population, only 45% said it would be doing better. Only 8% of the CEOs felt it would be doing worse, compared to 18% of the general population.

The CEOs were asked "Overall, how would you describe the current state of the BC high-tech sector?" A surprising 16% said poor or very poor. When the general public was asked the same question, only 10% said poor or very poor; 46% of the general public rated the high-tech sector as good or very good, but only 38% of the CEOs gave it that rating. It is disturbing that those who have the inside knowledge are more pessimistic about high-tech, their industry. Maybe their judgment is based on information other than government advertising. 38% is a big improvement over other years following the burst technology bubble, but the glass is far from half full! Nevertheless, the Ipsos-Reid news release did its best to spin the positive side of their survey with claims about optimism with respect to the BC economy in general and the future of high-tech in particular.

When it comes to the future the ratings are reversed between the CEOs and the general public. Both groups were asked, "A year from now, how do you think the BC high-tech sector will be doing compared to today?" Only 7% of the CEOs said worse, 63% said better; 5% of the general public said worse, 43% said better. Hope springs eternal!